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Premier League

Referee: M Atkinson

Burnley

T T S S T

0–2

Full-time

Man City

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

1,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

0,8

2,7

Conceded

1,0

0,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+2,5

This season — Premier League · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 48%

30%

65%

Points per game

1,1

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

30%

Both score Ø 30%

25%

35%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

0,7

1,9

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

25% Possession 75%

2 Shots 17

0 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 15. · Man City 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	20	13	5	2	+24	44
2	Man United	22	13	5	4	+19	44
3	Liverpool	21	11	7	3	+19	40
4	Leicester	21	12	3	6	+12	39
5	West Ham	21	10	5	6	+4	35
6	Tottenham	20	9	6	5	+13	33
7	Chelsea	21	9	6	6	+12	33
8	Everton	19	10	3	6	+5	33
9	Aston Villa	19	10	2	7	+13	32
10	Arsenal	22	9	4	9	+5	31
11	Leeds	20	9	2	9	-1	29
12	Southampton	21	8	5	8	-7	29
13	Crystal Palace	22	8	5	9	-10	29
14	Wolves	22	7	5	10	-8	26
15	Burnley	20	6	4	10	-13	22
16	Newcastle	22	6	4	12	-14	22
17	Brighton	21	4	9	8	-6	21
18	Fulham	20	2	8	10	-12	14
19	West Brom	22	2	6	14	-34	12
20	Sheffield United	22	3	2	17	-21	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	8	2	1	+15	26
2	Liverpool	10	7	2	1	+12	23
3	Chelsea	11	5	4	2	+10	19
4	West Ham	11	5	3	3	+2	18
5	Man United	11	5	2	4	+7	17
6	Southampton	11	5	1	5	+2	16
7	Leicester	11	5	1	5	+1	16
8	Tottenham	10	4	3	3	+3	15
9	Arsenal	11	4	3	4	+1	15
10	Wolves	11	4	3	4	+0	15
11	Crystal Palace	11	4	3	4	-4	15
12	Everton	10	4	2	4	+1	14
13	Aston Villa	8	4	1	3	+6	13
14	Burnley	9	4	1	4	-2	13
15	Leeds	9	3	2	4	-1	11
16	Newcastle	11	3	2	6	-7	11
17	Brighton	11	1	6	4	-4	9
18	Sheffield United	11	2	1	8	-8	7
19	Fulham	10	1	3	6	-8	6
20	West Brom	11	1	3	7	-24	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	11	8	3	0	+12	27
2	Leicester	10	7	2	1	+11	23
3	Aston Villa	11	6	1	4	+7	19
4	Everton	9	6	1	2	+4	19
5	Tottenham	10	5	3	2	+10	18
6	Man City	9	5	3	1	+9	18
7	Leeds	11	6	0	5	+0	18
8	Liverpool	11	4	5	2	+7	17
9	West Ham	10	5	2	3	+2	17
10	Arsenal	11	5	1	5	+4	16
11	Chelsea	10	4	2	4	+2	14
12	Crystal Palace	11	4	2	5	-6	14
13	Southampton	10	3	4	3	-9	13
14	Brighton	10	3	3	4	-2	12
15	Newcastle	11	3	2	6	-7	11
16	Wolves	11	3	2	6	-8	11
17	Burnley	11	2	3	6	-11	9
18	Fulham	10	1	5	4	-4	8
19	West Brom	11	1	3	7	-10	6
20	Sheffield United	11	1	1	9	-13	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.