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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Oliveira

Sp Braga

S U U S T

2–0

Full-time

U. Madeira

T U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga U. Madeira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

1,8

0,5

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 37%

50%

23%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

46%

38%

Both score Ø 33%

38%

27%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

1,7

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

64% Possession 36%

27 Shots 7

8 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 0

2 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Braga 4. · U. Madeira 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	27	22	1	4	+53	67
2	Sp Lisbon	27	20	5	2	+39	65
3	Porto	27	19	4	4	+30	61
4	Sp Braga	26	13	8	5	+22	47
5	Arouca	27	10	11	6	+4	41
6	Rio Ave	27	11	6	10	-1	39
7	Pacos Ferreira	27	9	9	9	+0	36
8	Estoril	27	10	6	11	+0	36
9	Guimaraes	27	8	10	9	-5	34
10	Nacional	27	9	7	11	-6	34
11	Belenenses	27	8	9	10	-18	33
12	Maritimo	27	8	5	14	-16	29
13	Vitoria Setubal	27	6	10	11	-12	28
14	Moreirense	27	7	7	13	-13	28
15	U. Madeira	26	6	7	13	-17	25
16	Boavista	27	6	6	15	-14	24
17	Academica	27	5	8	14	-21	23
18	Tondela	27	3	5	19	-25	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	13	11	0	2	+30	33
2	Sp Lisbon	14	10	3	1	+18	33
3	Porto	13	10	2	1	+17	32
4	Sp Braga	12	8	3	1	+22	27
5	Rio Ave	14	8	1	5	+3	25
6	Nacional	14	7	3	4	+3	24
7	Arouca	13	6	4	3	+6	22
8	Estoril	13	6	3	4	+5	21
9	U. Madeira	13	5	5	3	+2	20
10	Pacos Ferreira	14	5	4	5	+3	19
11	Belenenses	13	5	4	4	-3	19
12	Academica	14	5	4	5	-6	19
13	Guimaraes	14	4	5	5	+1	17
14	Maritimo	13	5	2	6	+0	17
15	Vitoria Setubal	14	2	8	4	-8	14
16	Moreirense	13	2	4	7	-8	10
17	Boavista	14	2	4	8	-9	10
18	Tondela	14	1	3	10	-14	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	11	1	2	+23	34
2	Sp Lisbon	13	10	2	1	+21	32
3	Porto	14	9	2	3	+13	29
4	Sp Braga	14	5	5	4	+0	20
5	Arouca	14	4	7	3	-2	19
6	Moreirense	14	5	3	6	-5	18
7	Pacos Ferreira	13	4	5	4	-3	17
8	Guimaraes	13	4	5	4	-6	17
9	Estoril	14	4	3	7	-5	15
10	Rio Ave	13	3	5	5	-4	14
11	Vitoria Setubal	13	4	2	7	-4	14
12	Boavista	13	4	2	7	-5	14
13	Belenenses	14	3	5	6	-15	14
14	Maritimo	14	3	3	8	-16	12
15	Nacional	13	2	4	7	-9	10
16	Tondela	13	2	2	9	-11	8
17	U. Madeira	13	1	2	10	-19	5
18	Academica	13	0	4	9	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.