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Primeira Liga
Referee: Cosme Cunha Machado
Benfica
S S S T S
2–0
Full-time
U. Madeira
S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica U. Madeira
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
83%
33%
Points per game
2,5
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
100%
50%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
4,0
2,3
Scored
3,0
1,0
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+2,0
-0,3
This season — Primeira Liga · 23/23 matches
Win Ø 52%
78%
26%
Points per game
2,4
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
74%
39%
Both score Ø 33%
39%
26%
Average goals
3,5
2,0
Scored
2,7
0,7
Conceded
0,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
+2,0
-0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

76% Possession 24%
24 Shots 2
11 Shots on target 0
6 Blocked shots 0
0 Goalkeeper saves 9
10 Corners 3
0 Offside 2
0 Free kicks against 0
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Benfica 2. · U. Madeira 14.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sp Lisbon 23 18 4 1 +35 58
2 Benfica 23 18 1 4 +46 55
3 Porto 24 17 4 3 +30 55
4 Sp Braga 24 12 8 4 +23 44
5 Rio Ave 24 10 6 8 +1 36
6 Arouca 24 8 11 5 +6 35
7 Guimaraes 23 8 9 6 -1 33
8 Pacos Ferreira 24 8 7 9 -1 31
9 Estoril 24 8 6 10 -4 30
10 Vitoria Setubal 24 6 10 8 -9 28
11 Maritimo 24 8 4 12 -12 28
12 Belenenses 24 7 7 10 -21 28
13 Nacional 24 6 7 11 -9 25
14 U. Madeira 23 6 6 11 -14 24
15 Moreirense 24 6 5 13 -14 23
16 Boavista 24 5 6 13 -15 21
17 Academica 24 4 7 13 -20 19
18 Tondela 24 3 4 17 -21 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

15. Dec -15 U. Madeira – Benfica 0–0

Match report

Benfica U. Madeira
1–0 Jonas
5′
Half-time 1–0
65′
🔁 Miguel Cardoso
↦ Danilo Dias
70′
🟨 Paulo Monteiro
E. Salvio 🔁
↦ Talisca
70′
74′
🔁 Élio Martins
↦ Toni Silva
2–0 Jonas
76′
Victor Lindelöf 🟨
78′
R. Jiménez 🔁
↦ K. Mitroglou
82′
Goncalo Guedes 🔁
↦ N. Gaitán
85′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Benfica

12 Júlio César G
33 Jardel D
14 V. Nilsson Lindelöf D
3 Álex Grimaldo D
50 Nélson Semedo D
10 N. Gaitán M
21 Pizzi M
7 A. Samaris M
30 Talisca M
17 Jonas F
11 K. Mitroglou F
Bench (7)
18 E. Salvio
9 R. Jiménez
20 Goncalo Guedes
1 Ederson Moraes
34 André Almeida
28 Sílvio
85 Renato Sanches

U. Madeira

71 R. Gudiño G
37 Paulo Monteiro
5 Joãozinho D
2 Paulinho D
6 Tiago Ferreira D
44 Diego Galo D
14 A. Shehu M
3 William Soares
20 Toni Silva F
15 Danilo Dias F
23 Amilton M
Bench (7)
25 Miguel Cardoso
29 Élio Martins
21 Kusunga
9 Miguel Fidalgo
7 Rúben Andrade
88 Gian Martins
1 Ricardo Campos

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Cosme Cunha Machado · 14 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
8,4 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,43 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.