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Eredivisie

Referee: Jeroen Manschot

Ajax

S U S S S

3–1

Full-time

Willem II

U S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Willem II

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

100%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

5,0

4,2

Scored

4,0

2,2

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+3,0

+0,2

This season — Eredivisie · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 48%

71%

24%

Points per game

2,2

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 85%

88%

82%

Both score Ø 71%

65%

76%

Average goals

3,9

3,7

Scored

3,0

1,5

Conceded

0,9

2,2

Goal diff per game

+2,1

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

66% Possession 34%

28 Shots 10

11 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

12 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 2. · Willem II 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	18	15	1	2	+28	46
2	Ajax	17	12	2	3	+35	38
3	AZ Alkmaar	18	12	2	4	+15	38
4	Zwolle	18	9	6	3	+5	33
5	Feyenoord	16	8	5	3	+17	29
6	Den Haag	17	8	2	7	-1	26
7	Utrecht	15	7	3	5	-3	24
8	Heerenveen	17	6	5	6	-3	23
9	Heracles	17	6	4	7	-9	22
10	Excelsior	18	6	3	9	-6	21
11	Vitesse	15	5	5	5	+6	20
12	Groningen	18	5	5	8	+0	20
13	VVV Venlo	17	4	7	6	-6	19
14	Willem II	17	4	4	9	-11	16
15	NAC Breda	18	4	4	10	-15	16
16	Twente	18	4	3	11	-9	15
17	Roda	17	3	2	12	-19	11
18	Sparta Rotterdam	17	2	5	10	-24	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	9	0	0	+17	27
2	AZ Alkmaar	10	7	0	3	+9	21
3	Heracles	9	6	2	1	+6	20
4	Ajax	8	6	0	2	+16	18
5	Zwolle	8	5	2	1	+7	17
6	Groningen	10	4	4	2	+5	16
7	Den Haag	10	4	2	4	+1	14
8	Feyenoord	8	3	3	2	+2	12
9	Twente	9	3	2	4	+0	11
10	Utrecht	6	3	2	1	+0	11
11	NAC Breda	9	3	1	5	-10	10
12	Willem II	9	2	2	5	-2	8
13	Roda	8	2	2	4	-4	8
14	Excelsior	10	2	2	6	-6	8
15	Heerenveen	8	2	2	4	-7	8
16	Sparta Rotterdam	8	2	2	4	-10	8
17	Vitesse	6	1	3	2	+0	6
18	VVV Venlo	9	1	3	5	-7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	9	6	2	1	+19	20
2	PSV Eindhoven	9	6	1	2	+11	19
3	Feyenoord	8	5	2	1	+15	17
4	AZ Alkmaar	8	5	2	1	+6	17
5	Zwolle	10	4	4	2	-2	16
6	Heerenveen	9	4	3	2	+4	15
7	Vitesse	9	4	2	3	+6	14
8	VVV Venlo	8	3	4	1	+1	13
9	Excelsior	8	4	1	3	+0	13
10	Utrecht	9	4	1	4	-3	13
11	Den Haag	7	4	0	3	-2	12
12	Willem II	8	2	2	4	-9	8
13	NAC Breda	9	1	3	5	-5	6
14	Groningen	8	1	1	6	-5	4
15	Twente	9	1	1	7	-9	4
16	Sparta Rotterdam	9	0	3	6	-14	3
17	Roda	9	1	0	8	-15	3
18	Heracles	8	0	2	6	-15	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.