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Ligue 1

Referee: Mikael Lesage

Dijon

S T T S T

2–1

Full-time

Toulouse

U T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dijon Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 22%

22%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

49%

46%

Both score Ø 45%

32%

57%

Average goals

2,4

Scored

0,8

0,9

Conceded

1,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

42% Possession 58%

12 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 5

9 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dijon 19. · Toulouse 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	37	29	4	4	+72	91
2	Lille	37	22	9	6	+37	75
3	Lyon	37	20	9	8	+22	69
4	St Etienne	37	19	8	10	+18	65
5	Montpellier	37	15	14	8	+12	59
6	Marseille	37	17	7	13	+7	58
7	Nimes	37	15	8	14	+0	53
8	Nice	37	14	11	12	-7	53
9	Reims	37	12	16	9	-5	52
10	Rennes	37	12	13	12	+1	49
11	Nantes	37	13	9	15	+1	48
12	Strasbourg	37	10	16	11	+9	46
13	Angers	37	10	15	12	-5	45
14	Bordeaux	37	9	11	17	-9	38
15	Toulouse	37	8	14	15	-21	38
16	Monaco	37	8	12	17	-17	36
17	Amiens	37	8	11	18	-22	35
18	Caen	37	7	12	18	-24	33
19	Dijon	37	8	7	22	-30	31
20	Guingamp	37	5	12	20	-39	27

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	19	17	2	0	+53	53
2	Lille	19	13	4	2	+31	43
3	St Etienne	19	13	2	4	+20	41
4	Lyon	19	12	4	3	+19	40
5	Marseille	18	10	4	4	+13	34
6	Montpellier	19	8	8	3	+11	32
7	Nimes	18	9	5	4	+11	32
8	Nantes	18	9	4	5	+12	31
9	Nice	18	9	4	5	+3	31
10	Rennes	18	7	7	4	+7	28
11	Reims	18	7	7	4	+1	28
12	Bordeaux	19	7	6	6	+3	27
13	Strasbourg	19	6	8	5	+6	26
14	Angers	18	5	8	5	+2	23
15	Amiens	18	6	5	7	-3	23
16	Toulouse	19	4	9	6	-6	21
17	Dijon	18	5	4	9	-12	19
18	Monaco	19	4	6	9	-10	18
19	Caen	18	4	5	9	-10	17
20	Guingamp	19	3	7	9	-11	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	18	12	2	4	+19	38
2	Lille	18	9	5	4	+6	32
3	Lyon	18	8	5	5	+3	29
4	Montpellier	18	7	6	5	+1	27
5	St Etienne	18	6	6	6	-2	24
6	Marseille	19	7	3	9	-6	24
7	Reims	19	5	9	5	-6	24
8	Angers	19	5	7	7	-7	22
9	Nice	19	5	7	7	-10	22
10	Rennes	19	5	6	8	-6	21
11	Nimes	19	6	3	10	-11	21
12	Strasbourg	18	4	8	6	+3	20
13	Monaco	18	4	6	8	-7	18
14	Nantes	19	4	5	10	-11	17
15	Toulouse	18	4	5	9	-15	17
16	Caen	19	3	7	9	-14	16
17	Dijon	19	3	3	13	-18	12
18	Amiens	19	2	6	11	-19	12
19	Bordeaux	18	2	5	11	-12	11
20	Guingamp	18	2	5	11	-28	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.