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Ligue 1

Referee: Antony Gautier

Montpellier

T U S T U

3–1

Full-time

Marseille

S U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

5,0

1,8

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

3,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 23%

18%

27%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

55%

36%

Both score Ø 64%

82%

45%

Average goals

3,7

1,9

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

2,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,1

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

31% Possession 69%

13 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 5

1 Offside 10

10 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Montpellier 16. · Marseille 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	11	9	2	0	+16	29
2	Monaco	11	7	2	2	+15	23
3	Paris SG	11	7	2	2	+13	23
4	Guingamp	11	6	2	3	+5	20
5	Rennes	11	6	2	3	+1	20
6	Toulouse	11	5	3	3	+6	18
7	St Etienne	11	4	5	2	+4	17
8	Lyon	11	5	1	5	+3	16
9	Bordeaux	11	4	4	3	+1	16
10	Marseille	11	3	5	3	+1	14
11	Angers	11	4	2	5	-1	14
12	Dijon	11	3	4	4	-1	13
13	Metz	11	4	1	6	-10	13
14	Bastia	11	3	2	6	-2	11
15	Nantes	11	3	2	6	-7	11
16	Montpellier	11	2	5	4	-9	11
17	Lille	11	3	1	7	-7	10
18	Caen	11	3	1	7	-12	10
19	Nancy	11	2	3	6	-6	9
20	Lorient	11	2	1	8	-10	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	7	6	1	0	+12	19
2	Rennes	6	5	1	0	+7	16
3	Monaco	5	4	1	0	+10	13
4	Guingamp	5	4	1	0	+4	13
5	Toulouse	5	4	0	1	+7	12
6	St Etienne	6	3	3	0	+5	12
7	Marseille	6	3	3	0	+4	12
8	Paris SG	5	3	2	0	+8	11
9	Dijon	6	3	2	1	+5	11
10	Lyon	5	3	0	2	+4	9
11	Lille	6	3	0	3	-2	9
12	Caen	5	3	0	2	-4	9
13	Angers	5	2	2	1	+2	8
14	Montpellier	5	2	2	1	+1	8
15	Bordeaux	5	2	2	1	+1	8
16	Bastia	6	2	2	2	+0	8
17	Lorient	6	2	1	3	-4	7
18	Metz	5	2	0	3	-9	6
19	Nantes	5	1	1	3	-4	4
20	Nancy	6	1	1	4	-5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	4	0	2	+5	12
2	Monaco	6	3	1	2	+5	10
3	Nice	4	3	1	0	+4	10
4	Bordeaux	6	2	2	2	+0	8
5	Guingamp	6	2	1	3	+1	7
6	Lyon	6	2	1	3	-1	7
7	Metz	6	2	1	3	-1	7
8	Nantes	6	2	1	3	-3	7
9	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-1	6
10	Angers	6	2	0	4	-3	6
11	St Etienne	5	1	2	2	-1	5
12	Nancy	5	1	2	2	-1	5
13	Rennes	5	1	1	3	-6	4
14	Bastia	5	1	0	4	-2	3
15	Montpellier	6	0	3	3	-10	3
16	Marseille	5	0	2	3	-3	2
17	Dijon	5	0	2	3	-6	2
18	Lille	5	0	1	4	-5	1
19	Caen	6	0	1	5	-8	1
20	Lorient	5	0	0	5	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.