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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Tagliavento

Milan

S U S T U

1–1

Full-time

Lazio

S U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

1,7

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,5

This season — Serie A · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 42%

45%

38%

Points per game

1,7

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

38%

45%

Both score Ø 47%

48%

45%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

57% Possession 43%

20 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

12 Corners 4

1 Offside 4

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Milan 6. · Lazio 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	30	22	4	4	+39	70
2	Napoli	30	20	7	3	+38	67
3	Roma	30	17	9	4	+31	60
4	Fiorentina	30	16	7	7	+18	55
5	Inter	30	16	7	7	+12	55
6	Milan	29	13	9	7	+9	48
7	Sassuolo	30	11	12	7	+4	45
8	Lazio	29	11	8	10	+0	41
9	Chievo	30	10	8	12	-5	38
10	Bologna	30	10	6	14	-5	36
11	Empoli	30	9	9	12	-8	36
12	Genoa	30	9	7	14	-5	34
13	Torino	30	8	9	13	-5	33
14	Atalanta	30	8	9	13	-7	33
15	Sampdoria	30	8	8	14	-5	32
16	Udinese	30	8	7	15	-19	31
17	Carpi	30	6	10	14	-18	28
18	Palermo	30	7	7	16	-23	28
19	Frosinone	30	7	6	17	-26	27
20	Verona	30	2	13	15	-25	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	15	12	3	0	+23	39
2	Juventus	14	11	2	1	+16	35
3	Roma	15	10	4	1	+22	34
4	Fiorentina	15	10	3	2	+17	33
5	Inter	15	10	2	3	+10	32
6	Milan	14	9	3	2	+9	30
7	Lazio	15	8	3	4	+10	27
8	Genoa	15	8	3	4	+7	27
9	Sassuolo	15	6	7	2	+3	25
10	Sampdoria	15	6	4	5	+5	22
11	Atalanta	15	6	4	5	+4	22
12	Frosinone	16	6	4	6	-4	22
13	Torino	16	5	6	5	+2	21
14	Chievo	14	4	6	4	+0	18
15	Bologna	15	4	5	6	+0	17
16	Empoli	15	4	5	6	-2	17
17	Carpi	15	4	5	6	-3	17
18	Palermo	15	4	3	8	-6	15
19	Udinese	14	4	3	7	-8	15
20	Verona	16	2	6	8	-10	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	16	11	2	3	+23	35
2	Napoli	15	8	4	3	+15	28
3	Roma	15	7	5	3	+9	26
4	Inter	15	6	5	4	+2	23
5	Fiorentina	15	6	4	5	+1	22
6	Sassuolo	15	5	5	5	+1	20
7	Chievo	16	6	2	8	-5	20
8	Bologna	15	6	1	8	-5	19
9	Empoli	15	5	4	6	-6	19
10	Milan	15	4	6	5	+0	18
11	Udinese	16	4	4	8	-11	16
12	Lazio	14	3	5	6	-10	14
13	Palermo	15	3	4	8	-17	13
14	Torino	14	3	3	8	-7	12
15	Atalanta	15	2	5	8	-11	11
16	Carpi	15	2	5	8	-15	11
17	Sampdoria	15	2	4	9	-10	10
18	Genoa	15	1	4	10	-12	7
19	Verona	14	0	7	7	-15	7
20	Frosinone	14	1	2	11	-22	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.