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Bundesliga

Referee: Sven Jablonski

Mainz

S T T T T

5–0

Full-time

Freiburg

S T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

2,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,5

This season — Bundesliga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 28%

30%

26%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

63%

48%

Both score Ø 62%

56%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,8

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,2

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

29% Possession 71%

9 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 7

3 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 13. · Freiburg 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	27	19	6	2	+36	63
2	Bayern Munich	27	19	4	4	+41	61
3	RB Leipzig	27	15	7	5	+29	52
4	Ein Frankfurt	27	14	7	6	+24	49
5	M'gladbach	27	14	5	8	+12	47
6	Werder Bremen	27	11	9	7	+10	42
7	Leverkusen	27	13	3	11	+4	42
8	Wolfsburg	27	12	6	9	+3	42
9	Hoffenheim	27	10	11	6	+15	41
10	Hertha	27	9	8	10	-4	35
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	27	10	4	13	-15	34
12	Freiburg	27	7	11	9	-5	32
13	Mainz	27	8	6	13	-20	30
14	Schalke 04	27	7	5	15	-16	26
15	Augsburg	27	6	7	14	-13	25
16	Stuttgart	27	5	5	17	-33	20
17	Nurnberg	27	3	7	17	-30	16
18	Hannover	27	3	5	19	-38	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	14	12	2	0	+27	38
2	Bayern Munich	13	9	3	1	+23	30
3	RB Leipzig	14	8	5	1	+22	29
4	M'gladbach	13	9	1	3	+12	28
5	Ein Frankfurt	14	8	3	3	+15	27
6	Hoffenheim	14	6	5	3	+10	23
7	Werder Bremen	14	6	5	3	+7	23
8	Leverkusen	13	7	1	5	+2	22
9	Freiburg	14	5	6	3	+5	21
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	14	7	0	7	-2	21
11	Hertha	13	5	5	3	+2	20
12	Wolfsburg	13	5	4	4	+2	19
13	Mainz	13	5	4	4	+0	19
14	Augsburg	13	4	4	5	+3	16
15	Stuttgart	13	4	3	6	-8	15
16	Nurnberg	14	3	5	6	-2	14
17	Schalke 04	13	4	1	8	-8	13
18	Hannover	14	3	1	10	-14	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	10	1	3	+18	31
2	Dortmund	13	7	4	2	+9	25
3	RB Leipzig	13	7	2	4	+7	23
4	Wolfsburg	14	7	2	5	+1	23
5	Ein Frankfurt	13	6	4	3	+9	22
6	Leverkusen	14	6	2	6	+2	20
7	Werder Bremen	13	5	4	4	+3	19
8	M'gladbach	14	5	4	5	+0	19
9	Hoffenheim	13	4	6	3	+5	18
10	Hertha	14	4	3	7	-6	15
11	Schalke 04	14	3	4	7	-8	13
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	13	3	4	6	-13	13
13	Freiburg	13	2	5	6	-10	11
14	Mainz	14	3	2	9	-20	11
15	Augsburg	14	2	3	9	-16	9
16	Stuttgart	14	1	2	11	-25	5
17	Hannover	13	0	4	9	-24	4
18	Nurnberg	13	0	2	11	-28	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.