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Bundesliga
Referee: Benjamin Cortus
Hoffenheim
U U S U U
1–1
Full-time
Werder Bremen
T U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Werder Bremen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
2,7
2,8
Scored
1,7
1,3
Conceded
1,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,2
This season — Bundesliga · 15/15 matches
Win Ø 34%
40%
27%
Points per game
1,8
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 74%
60%
87%
Both score Ø 77%
67%
87%
Average goals
2,9
3,5
Scored
1,8
1,3
Conceded
1,1
2,2
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

60% Possession 40%
12 Shots 10
3 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 9
1 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 19
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hoffenheim 5. · Werder Bremen 15.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 15 11 3 1 +26 36
2 RB Leipzig 15 11 3 1 +19 36
3 Ein Frankfurt 16 8 5 3 +10 29
4 Dortmund 16 7 6 3 +16 27
5 Hoffenheim 15 6 9 0 +11 27
6 Hertha 15 8 3 4 +6 27
7 FC Koln 15 6 6 3 +6 24
8 Leverkusen 15 6 2 7 -1 20
9 Mainz 16 6 2 8 -4 20
10 Freiburg 15 6 2 7 -7 20
11 Schalke 04 16 5 3 8 +1 18
12 Augsburg 16 4 6 6 -4 18
13 Wolfsburg 16 4 4 8 -9 16
14 M'gladbach 16 4 4 8 -10 16
15 Werder Bremen 15 4 3 8 -14 15
16 Hamburg 16 3 4 9 -17 13
17 FC Ingolstadt 04 15 3 3 9 -12 12
18 Darmstadt 15 2 2 11 -17 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Hoffenheim Werder Bremen
1–0 S. Wagner
K. Demirbay
26′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 F. Bartels
↦ P. Bargfrede
53′
🟨 Santiago García
P. Schwegler 🔁
↦ K. Demirbay
66′
A. Kramarić 🔁
↦ M. Uth
67′
73′
🟨 Fin Bartels
76′
🔁 A. Jóhannsson
↦ L. Sané
Benjamin Hübner 🟨
77′
B. Atik 🔁
↦ N. Amiri
82′
87′
S. Gnabry 1–1
S. García
Pirmin Schwegler 🟨
90′
90′
🔁 U. Garcia
↦ C. Pizarro
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Hoffenheim

3-1-4-2
1 O. Baumann G
21 B. Hübner D
3 P. Kadeřábek M
15 J. Toljan D
25 N. Süle D
8 E. Polanski M
22 K. Vogt D
13 K. Demirbay M
18 N. Amiri M
14 S. Wagner F
19 M. Uth F
Bench (7)
16 P. Schwegler
27 A. Kramarić
34 B. Atik
4 E. Bičakčić
17 S. Zuber
30 P. Ochs
33 A. Stolz

Coach: J. Nagelsmann

Werder Bremen

3-4-2-1
33 J. Drobný G
18 N. Moisander D
26 L. Sané D
2 S. García D
4 R. Bauer D
16 Z. Junuzović M
44 P. Bargfrede M
29 S. Gnabry M
13 M. Veljkovic D
14 C. Pizarro F
10 M. Kruse F
Bench (7)
22 F. Bartels
9 A. Jóhannsson
20 U. Garcia
7 F. Kainz
23 T. Gebre Selassie
39 L. Fröde
42 F. Wiedwald

Coach: A. Nouri

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Benjamin Cortus · 31 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
28,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.