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Championship

Referee: Stephen Martin

Bolton

S T T S T

0–2

Full-time

Middlesbrough

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bolton Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

1,2

0,5

Conceded

2,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-1,5

This season — Championship · 40/40 matches

Win Ø 29%

20%

38%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

43%

30%

Both score Ø 42%

43%

40%

Average goals

2,4

1,9

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,7

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

56% Possession 44%

13 Shots 18

2 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 8

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 9

1 Offside 6

11 Free kicks against 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bolton 23. · Middlesbrough 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	40	25	9	6	+34	84
2	Sheffield United	40	23	8	9	+30	77
3	Leeds	39	22	7	10	+21	73
4	West Brom	39	19	9	11	+20	66
5	Bristol City	40	18	11	11	+10	65
6	Derby	37	16	12	9	+14	60
7	Aston Villa	37	15	14	8	+15	59
8	Sheffield Weds	41	15	14	12	-2	59
9	Middlesbrough	40	15	13	12	+5	58
10	Nott'm Forest	41	14	15	12	+5	57
11	Preston	41	15	12	14	+4	57
12	Hull	40	16	9	15	+2	57
13	Swansea	40	16	8	16	+5	56
14	Birmingham	40	13	14	13	+4	53
15	Brentford	40	13	12	15	+7	51
16	Stoke	41	11	18	12	-6	51
17	Blackburn	41	13	11	17	-8	50
18	QPR	40	12	8	20	-19	44
19	Wigan	40	10	11	19	-16	41
20	Millwall	39	10	10	19	-13	40
21	Reading	40	9	13	18	-17	40
22	Rotherham	40	8	15	17	-25	39
23	Bolton	40	8	8	24	-37	32
24	Ipswich	40	4	15	21	-33	27

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	20	14	2	4	+16	44
2	Sheffield United	20	13	3	4	+21	42
3	Leeds	19	12	3	4	+15	39
4	Brentford	20	11	4	5	+20	37
5	Derby	19	10	7	2	+15	37
6	Swansea	20	11	4	5	+13	37
7	Nott'm Forest	20	11	4	5	+10	37
8	Hull	20	10	5	5	+15	35
9	Sheffield Weds	21	9	8	4	+6	35
10	Wigan	20	9	7	4	+6	34
11	West Brom	19	9	6	4	+17	33
12	Blackburn	21	9	6	6	+9	33
13	Aston Villa	18	8	8	2	+11	32
14	Bristol City	21	8	7	6	+4	31
15	Preston	21	7	9	5	+7	30
16	Stoke	20	8	6	6	+2	30
17	Birmingham	20	7	8	5	+7	29
18	Rotherham	20	7	8	5	-2	29
19	Middlesbrough	20	7	6	7	+3	27
20	QPR	20	8	3	9	+0	27
21	Millwall	19	7	6	6	+0	27
22	Reading	20	7	4	9	-3	25
23	Ipswich	20	2	10	8	-9	16
24	Bolton	20	4	4	12	-17	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	20	11	7	2	+18	40
2	Sheffield United	20	10	5	5	+9	35
3	Leeds	20	10	4	6	+6	34
4	Bristol City	19	10	4	5	+6	34
5	West Brom	20	10	3	7	+3	33
6	Middlesbrough	20	8	7	5	+2	31
7	Aston Villa	19	7	6	6	+4	27
8	Preston	20	8	3	9	-3	27
9	Birmingham	20	6	6	8	-3	24
10	Sheffield Weds	20	6	6	8	-8	24
11	Derby	18	6	5	7	-1	23
12	Hull	20	6	4	10	-13	22
13	Stoke	21	3	12	6	-8	21
14	Nott'm Forest	21	3	11	7	-5	20
15	Swansea	20	5	4	11	-8	19
16	Blackburn	20	4	5	11	-17	17
17	QPR	20	4	5	11	-19	17
18	Bolton	20	4	4	12	-20	16
19	Reading	20	2	9	9	-14	15
20	Brentford	20	2	8	10	-13	14
21	Millwall	20	3	4	13	-13	13
22	Ipswich	20	2	5	13	-24	11
23	Rotherham	20	1	7	12	-23	10
24	Wigan	20	1	4	15	-22	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.