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Championship

Referee: Gavin Ward

Middlesbrough

U T T T T

0–1

Full-time

Bristol City

T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Bristol City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

This season — Championship · 38/37 matches

Win Ø 41%

39%

43%

Points per game

1,5

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

29%

35%

Both score Ø 45%

39%

51%

Average goals

1,9

2,4

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

53% Possession 47%

23 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 6

5 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 7. · Bristol City 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	39	24	9	6	+30	81
2	Sheffield United	39	22	8	9	+29	74
3	Leeds	37	21	7	9	+20	70
4	West Brom	37	19	9	9	+23	66
5	Derby	35	16	11	8	+16	59
6	Bristol City	37	16	10	11	+8	58
7	Middlesbrough	38	15	13	10	+8	58
8	Nott'm Forest	39	14	15	10	+9	57
9	Preston	39	15	12	12	+7	57
10	Aston Villa	36	14	14	8	+13	56
11	Sheffield Weds	39	14	14	11	-3	56
12	Hull	39	15	9	15	+0	54
13	Brentford	38	13	11	14	+10	50
14	Birmingham	39	12	14	13	+3	50
15	Stoke	39	10	18	11	-5	48
16	Swansea	37	13	8	16	-2	47
17	Blackburn	39	12	11	16	-9	47
18	QPR	39	12	8	19	-15	44
19	Reading	39	9	13	17	-15	40
20	Wigan	39	10	10	19	-16	40
21	Millwall	38	9	10	19	-15	37
22	Rotherham	39	7	15	17	-26	36
23	Bolton	39	8	8	23	-36	32
24	Ipswich	39	3	15	21	-34	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	20	13	3	4	+21	42
2	Norwich	19	13	2	4	+12	41
3	Leeds	19	12	3	4	+15	39
4	Derby	19	10	7	2	+15	37
5	Nott'm Forest	20	11	4	5	+10	37
6	Brentford	19	11	3	5	+20	36
7	Wigan	20	9	7	4	+6	34
8	West Brom	19	9	6	4	+17	33
9	Hull	19	9	5	5	+13	32
10	Aston Villa	18	8	8	2	+11	32
11	Sheffield Weds	19	8	8	3	+5	32
12	Preston	19	7	9	3	+10	30
13	Blackburn	19	8	6	5	+8	30
14	Stoke	20	8	6	6	+2	30
15	Swansea	17	8	4	5	+6	28
16	Middlesbrough	19	7	6	6	+4	27
17	Bristol City	19	7	6	6	+3	27
18	QPR	20	8	3	9	+0	27
19	Birmingham	19	6	8	5	+6	26
20	Rotherham	19	6	8	5	-3	26
21	Reading	20	7	4	9	-3	25
22	Millwall	18	6	6	6	-2	24
23	Ipswich	20	2	10	8	-9	16
24	Bolton	19	4	4	11	-16	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	20	11	7	2	+18	40
2	West Brom	18	10	3	5	+6	33
3	Sheffield United	19	9	5	5	+8	32
4	Leeds	18	9	4	5	+5	31
5	Bristol City	18	9	4	5	+5	31
6	Middlesbrough	19	8	7	4	+4	31
7	Preston	20	8	3	9	-3	27
8	Aston Villa	18	6	6	6	+2	24
9	Birmingham	20	6	6	8	-3	24
10	Sheffield Weds	20	6	6	8	-8	24
11	Derby	16	6	4	6	+1	22
12	Hull	20	6	4	10	-13	22
13	Nott'm Forest	19	3	11	5	-1	20
14	Swansea	20	5	4	11	-8	19
15	Stoke	19	2	12	5	-7	18
16	QPR	19	4	5	10	-15	17
17	Blackburn	20	4	5	11	-17	17
18	Bolton	20	4	4	12	-20	16
19	Reading	19	2	9	8	-12	15
20	Brentford	19	2	8	9	-10	14
21	Millwall	20	3	4	13	-13	13
22	Rotherham	20	1	7	12	-23	10
23	Ipswich	19	1	5	13	-25	8
24	Wigan	19	1	3	15	-22	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.