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Championship

Referee: James Linington

Swansea

T T T S S

3–1

Full-time

Stoke

U U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

2,7

0,5

Scored

1,5

0,5

Conceded

1,2

0,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,5

This season — Championship · 39/40 matches

Win Ø 33%

38%

28%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

56%

33%

Both score Ø 46%

51%

40%

Average goals

2,6

2,0

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

73% Possession 27%

31 Shots 2

8 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 1

5 Free kicks against 17

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Swansea 14. · Stoke 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	40	25	9	6	+34	84
2	Sheffield United	40	23	8	9	+30	77
3	Leeds	38	21	7	10	+19	70
4	West Brom	38	19	9	10	+21	66
5	Bristol City	39	17	11	11	+9	62
6	Derby	36	16	12	8	+16	60
7	Aston Villa	37	15	14	8	+15	59
8	Middlesbrough	40	15	13	12	+5	58
9	Nott'm Forest	40	14	15	11	+8	57
10	Preston	40	15	12	13	+6	57
11	Hull	40	16	9	15	+2	57
12	Sheffield Weds	40	14	14	12	-5	56
13	Birmingham	40	13	14	13	+4	53
14	Swansea	39	15	8	16	+3	53
15	Brentford	40	13	12	15	+7	51
16	Stoke	40	11	18	11	-4	51
17	Blackburn	40	12	11	17	-10	47
18	QPR	40	12	8	20	-19	44
19	Wigan	40	10	11	19	-16	41
20	Millwall	39	10	10	19	-13	40
21	Reading	40	9	13	18	-17	40
22	Rotherham	40	8	15	17	-25	39
23	Bolton	40	8	8	24	-37	32
24	Ipswich	40	4	15	21	-33	27

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	20	14	2	4	+16	44
2	Sheffield United	20	13	3	4	+21	42
3	Leeds	19	12	3	4	+15	39
4	Brentford	20	11	4	5	+20	37
5	Derby	19	10	7	2	+15	37
6	Nott'm Forest	20	11	4	5	+10	37
7	Hull	20	10	5	5	+15	35
8	Swansea	19	10	4	5	+11	34
9	Wigan	20	9	7	4	+6	34
10	West Brom	19	9	6	4	+17	33
11	Aston Villa	18	8	8	2	+11	32
12	Sheffield Weds	20	8	8	4	+3	32
13	Preston	20	7	9	4	+9	30
14	Blackburn	20	8	6	6	+7	30
15	Stoke	20	8	6	6	+2	30
16	Birmingham	20	7	8	5	+7	29
17	Rotherham	20	7	8	5	-2	29
18	Bristol City	20	7	7	6	+3	28
19	Middlesbrough	20	7	6	7	+3	27
20	QPR	20	8	3	9	+0	27
21	Millwall	19	7	6	6	+0	27
22	Reading	20	7	4	9	-3	25
23	Ipswich	20	2	10	8	-9	16
24	Bolton	20	4	4	12	-17	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	20	11	7	2	+18	40
2	Sheffield United	20	10	5	5	+9	35
3	Bristol City	19	10	4	5	+6	34
4	West Brom	19	10	3	6	+4	33
5	Leeds	19	9	4	6	+4	31
6	Middlesbrough	20	8	7	5	+2	31
7	Aston Villa	19	7	6	6	+4	27
8	Preston	20	8	3	9	-3	27
9	Birmingham	20	6	6	8	-3	24
10	Sheffield Weds	20	6	6	8	-8	24
11	Derby	17	6	5	6	+1	23
12	Hull	20	6	4	10	-13	22
13	Stoke	20	3	12	5	-6	21
14	Nott'm Forest	20	3	11	6	-2	20
15	Swansea	20	5	4	11	-8	19
16	Blackburn	20	4	5	11	-17	17
17	QPR	20	4	5	11	-19	17
18	Bolton	20	4	4	12	-20	16
19	Reading	20	2	9	9	-14	15
20	Brentford	20	2	8	10	-13	14
21	Millwall	20	3	4	13	-13	13
22	Ipswich	20	2	5	13	-24	11
23	Rotherham	20	1	7	12	-23	10
24	Wigan	20	1	4	15	-22	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.