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Premier League

Referee: Michael Oliver

Stoke

T U U S S

3–1

Full-time

Swansea

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 17%

22%

11%

Points per game

1,0

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

33%

56%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

Average goals

2,8

2,6

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

45% Possession 55%

17 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 17. · Swansea 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	7	2	1	+15	23
2	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+13	23
3	Liverpool	10	7	2	1	+11	23
4	Chelsea	10	7	1	2	+12	22
5	Tottenham	10	5	5	0	+9	20
6	Everton	10	5	3	2	+7	18
7	Watford	10	4	3	3	+1	15
8	Man United	10	4	3	3	+1	15
9	Southampton	10	3	4	3	+1	13
10	Bournemouth	10	3	3	4	-2	12
11	Leicester	10	3	3	4	-4	12
12	Crystal Palace	10	3	2	5	-2	11
13	Burnley	10	3	2	5	-5	11
14	Middlesbrough	10	2	4	4	-2	10
15	West Brom	10	2	4	4	-4	10
16	West Ham	10	3	1	6	-9	10
17	Stoke	9	2	3	4	-7	9
18	Hull	10	2	1	7	-15	7
19	Swansea	9	1	2	6	-7	5
20	Sunderland	10	0	2	8	-13	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	5	4	0	1	+10	12
2	Man City	5	3	2	0	+7	11
3	Leicester	5	3	2	0	+6	11
4	Everton	5	3	2	0	+5	11
5	Tottenham	5	3	2	0	+4	11
6	Liverpool	4	3	1	0	+8	10
7	Bournemouth	5	3	1	1	+5	10
8	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+4	10
9	Burnley	6	3	1	2	+3	10
10	Man United	5	2	2	1	+4	8
11	Southampton	5	2	2	1	+1	8
12	Watford	5	2	1	2	+0	7
13	West Ham	5	2	1	2	-3	7
14	West Brom	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	-1	4
16	Middlesbrough	5	1	1	3	-1	4
17	Stoke	4	1	1	2	-5	4
18	Hull	5	1	0	4	-7	3
19	Swansea	5	0	2	3	-5	2
20	Sunderland	5	0	1	4	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	5	4	1	0	+9	13
2	Liverpool	6	4	1	1	+3	13
3	Man City	5	4	0	1	+8	12
4	Chelsea	5	3	1	1	+2	10
5	Tottenham	5	2	3	0	+5	9
6	Watford	5	2	2	1	+1	8
7	Everton	5	2	1	2	+2	7
8	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	-1	7
9	Man United	5	2	1	2	-3	7
10	Middlesbrough	5	1	3	1	-1	6
11	Southampton	5	1	2	2	+0	5
12	West Brom	5	1	2	2	-1	5
13	Stoke	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Hull	5	1	1	3	-8	4
15	Swansea	4	1	0	3	-2	3
16	West Ham	5	1	0	4	-6	3
17	Bournemouth	5	0	2	3	-7	2
18	Sunderland	5	0	1	4	-5	1
19	Burnley	4	0	1	3	-8	1
20	Leicester	5	0	1	4	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.