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Championship

Referee: Steve Martin

Aston Villa

S T S T S

2–1

Full-time

Burton Albion

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Burton Albion

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,8

This season — Championship · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 28%

32%

23%

Points per game

1,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

27%

41%

Both score Ø 55%

55%

Average goals

2,0

2,4

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

43% Possession 57%

6 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 8

6 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 12. · Burton Albion 21. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	22	16	1	5	+28	49
2	Brighton	22	14	6	2	+21	48
3	Reading	21	12	4	5	+6	40
4	Huddersfield	21	12	3	6	+1	39
5	Leeds	22	12	2	8	+4	38
6	Derby	22	10	6	6	+8	36
7	Sheffield Weds	21	10	4	7	+2	34
8	Birmingham	22	9	7	6	-2	34
9	Norwich	22	10	3	9	+3	33
10	Preston	22	9	5	8	+3	32
11	Barnsley	22	9	4	9	+3	31
12	Aston Villa	22	7	10	5	+2	31
13	Fulham	21	7	9	5	+5	30
14	Brentford	23	8	5	10	-1	29
15	Ipswich	22	7	7	8	-2	28
16	Bristol City	22	8	3	11	+1	27
17	Nott'm Forest	22	7	5	10	-4	26
18	Wolves	22	6	7	9	-2	25
19	Cardiff	23	6	6	11	-12	24
20	QPR	22	6	5	11	-11	23
21	Burton Albion	22	5	7	10	-7	22
22	Blackburn	22	5	5	12	-10	20
23	Wigan	22	4	6	12	-9	18
24	Rotherham	22	2	4	16	-27	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	11	8	2	1	+16	26
2	Reading	11	7	3	1	+9	24
3	Sheffield Weds	11	8	0	3	+5	24
4	Leeds	12	7	2	3	+6	23
5	Norwich	11	7	1	3	+10	22
6	Huddersfield	9	7	1	1	+6	22
7	Newcastle	10	7	0	3	+12	21
8	Birmingham	12	6	3	3	+3	21
9	Aston Villa	10	5	5	0	+8	20
10	Bristol City	11	6	1	4	+3	19
11	Brentford	11	5	3	3	+7	18
12	Derby	11	5	3	3	+6	18
13	Nott'm Forest	11	5	3	3	+3	18
14	Preston	11	5	2	4	+5	17
15	Ipswich	11	4	5	2	+5	17
16	Burton Albion	11	5	2	4	+4	17
17	Barnsley	11	4	3	4	+0	15
18	Fulham	11	3	5	3	+1	14
19	Cardiff	12	4	2	6	-5	14
20	Blackburn	12	3	4	5	-3	13
21	QPR	12	3	3	6	-8	12
22	Rotherham	10	2	3	5	-4	9
23	Wolves	10	2	3	5	-5	9
24	Wigan	11	2	3	6	-5	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	12	9	1	2	+16	28
2	Brighton	11	6	4	1	+5	22
3	Derby	11	5	3	3	+2	18
4	Huddersfield	12	5	2	5	-5	17
5	Fulham	10	4	4	2	+4	16
6	Barnsley	11	5	1	5	+3	16
7	Wolves	12	4	4	4	+3	16
8	Reading	10	5	1	4	-3	16
9	Preston	11	4	3	4	-2	15
10	Leeds	10	5	0	5	-2	15
11	Birmingham	10	3	4	3	-5	13
12	QPR	10	3	2	5	-3	11
13	Aston Villa	12	2	5	5	-6	11
14	Norwich	11	3	2	6	-7	11
15	Ipswich	11	3	2	6	-7	11
16	Brentford	12	3	2	7	-8	11
17	Sheffield Weds	10	2	4	4	-3	10
18	Cardiff	11	2	4	5	-7	10
19	Wigan	11	2	3	6	-4	9
20	Bristol City	11	2	2	7	-2	8
21	Nott'm Forest	11	2	2	7	-7	8
22	Blackburn	10	2	1	7	-7	7
23	Burton Albion	11	0	5	6	-11	5
24	Rotherham	12	0	1	11	-23	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.