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Eliteserien
Referee: Svein Oddvar Moen
Lillestrom
S T T S T
2–1
Full-time
Stromsgodset
T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lillestrom Stromsgodset
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,0
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 25%
17%
33%
Average goals
3,3
2,8
Scored
1,5
0,8
Conceded
1,8
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-1,2
This season — Eliteserien · 14/14 matches
Win Ø 22%
29%
14%
Points per game
1,1
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 43%
36%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,8
Scored
1,1
1,0
Conceded
1,6
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

48% Possession 52%
14 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 3
4 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 1
4 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 5
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lillestrom 12. · Stromsgodset 16.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Molde 15 9 3 3 +20 30
2 Bodo/Glimt 14 9 2 3 +10 29
3 Odd 15 9 2 4 +5 29
4 Valerenga 14 7 3 4 +10 24
5 Rosenborg 15 7 3 5 +2 24
6 Brann 15 6 5 4 +2 23
7 Kristiansund 14 6 3 5 +2 21
8 Haugesund 15 5 5 5 +6 20
9 Viking 14 5 4 5 -3 19
10 Mjondalen 15 3 7 5 -4 16
11 Tromso 15 5 1 9 -13 16
12 Lillestrom 14 4 3 7 -7 15
13 Ranheim 15 4 3 8 -9 15
14 Stabaek 13 4 2 7 -6 14
15 Sarpsborg 08 13 2 6 5 -4 12
16 Stromsgodset 14 2 4 8 -11 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lillestrom Stromsgodset
1–0 Arnór Smárason
42′
43′
🔁 Lars Christopher Vilsvik
↦ Mounir Hamoud
2–0 Arnór Smárason
Simen Rafn
45′
Half-time 2–0
Alex Dyer 🔁
↦ Aleksander Melgalvis
68′
Moses Ebiye 🔁
↦ Daniel Gustavsson
68′
68′
🔁 Amahl Pellegrino
↦ Muhammed Keita
73′
Kristoffer Tokstad 2–1
Lars Christopher Vilsvik
81′
🟨 Kristoffer Tokstad
Simen Kind Mikalsen 🔁
↦ Kristoffer Odemarksbakken
84′
85′
🔁 Mustapha Fofana
↦ Martin Spelmann
Alex Dyer 🟨
86′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Lillestrom

4-4-2
1 Marko Maric G
2 Mats Haakenstad D
19 Sheriff Sinyan D
13 Frode Kippe D
5 Simen Rafn D
33 Aleksander Melgalvis M
23 Daniel Alexander Pedersen M
14 Fredrik Krogstad M
17 Kristoffer Odemarksbakken M
88 Arnór Smárason F
7 Daniel Gustavsson F
Bench (7)
41 Vegard Storsve
3 Simen Kind Mikalsen
27 Josef Baccay
15 Erik Brenden
28 Magnus Knudsen
21 Alex Dyer
18 Moses Ebiye

Coach: J. Lennartsson

Stromsgodset

4-3-3
1 Viljar Myhra G
2 Mounir Hamoud D
5 Jakob Glesnes D
39 Lars Saetra D
25 Stian Ringstad D
23 Martin Spelmann M
6 Henning Hauger M
7 Herman Stengel M
11 Kristoffer Tokstad F
30 Mostafa Abdellaoue F
77 Muhammed Keita F
Bench (6)
40 Morten Saetra
26 Lars Christopher Vilsvik
15 Loti Celina
56 Mustapha Fofana
90 Amahl Pellegrino
80 Andreas Rosendal Nyhagen

Coach: H. Pedersen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
U
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Svein Oddvar Moen · 86 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,1 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
20,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,09 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.