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Premier League

Referee: Kevin Friend

Liverpool

S U U S U

5–0

Full-time

Swansea

T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,5

Scored

2,7

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-1,2

This season — Premier League · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 32%

47%

16%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

63%

37%

Both score Ø 43%

53%

32%

Average goals

3,4

1,9

Scored

2,2

0,6

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

55% Possession 45%

22 Shots 7

9 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 2

3 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 5. · Swansea 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	19	18	1	0	+48	55
2	Man United	20	13	4	3	+27	43
3	Chelsea	20	13	3	4	+20	42
4	Tottenham	20	11	4	5	+19	37
5	Liverpool	19	9	8	2	+18	35
6	Arsenal	19	10	4	5	+11	34
7	Burnley	20	9	6	5	+1	33
8	Leicester	20	7	6	7	+0	27
9	Everton	20	7	6	7	-6	27
10	Watford	20	7	4	9	-6	25
11	Huddersfield	20	6	5	9	-14	23
12	Brighton	20	5	6	9	-10	21
13	Stoke	20	5	5	10	-18	20
14	Southampton	20	4	7	9	-10	19
15	Newcastle	19	5	3	11	-10	18
16	Crystal Palace	19	4	6	9	-13	18
17	West Ham	20	4	6	10	-16	18
18	Bournemouth	20	4	5	11	-13	17
19	West Brom	20	2	9	9	-13	15
20	Swansea	19	3	4	12	-15	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	9	1	0	+29	28
2	Man United	10	8	1	1	+19	25
3	Arsenal	10	8	1	1	+15	25
4	Chelsea	10	7	1	2	+9	22
5	Tottenham	10	6	3	1	+13	21
6	Everton	10	6	1	3	+4	19
7	Liverpool	9	4	5	0	+11	17
8	Burnley	10	5	2	3	+1	17
9	Huddersfield	10	4	3	3	-2	15
10	Leicester	10	4	2	4	-1	14
11	Brighton	10	3	5	2	-2	14
12	Stoke	10	4	2	4	-6	14
13	Southampton	11	3	4	4	-2	13
14	Crystal Palace	9	3	3	3	-3	12
15	Watford	10	3	3	4	-8	12
16	West Ham	9	3	2	4	-4	11
17	Newcastle	9	3	1	5	-3	10
18	Bournemouth	10	2	3	5	-4	9
19	West Brom	10	1	6	3	-5	9
20	Swansea	10	2	2	6	-9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	9	0	0	+19	27
2	Chelsea	10	6	2	2	+11	20
3	Man United	10	5	3	2	+8	18
4	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	+7	18
5	Tottenham	10	5	1	4	+6	16
6	Burnley	10	4	4	2	+0	16
7	Watford	10	4	1	5	+2	13
8	Leicester	10	3	4	3	+1	13
9	Arsenal	9	2	3	4	-4	9
10	Newcastle	10	2	2	6	-7	8
11	Bournemouth	10	2	2	6	-9	8
12	Everton	10	1	5	4	-10	8
13	Huddersfield	10	2	2	6	-12	8
14	Brighton	10	2	1	7	-8	7
15	West Ham	11	1	4	6	-12	7
16	Southampton	9	1	3	5	-8	6
17	West Brom	10	1	3	6	-8	6
18	Crystal Palace	10	1	3	6	-10	6
19	Stoke	10	1	3	6	-12	6
20	Swansea	9	1	2	6	-6	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.