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Premier League

Referee: Lee Mason

Man City

S S S S U

3–1

Full-time

Watford

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

2,5

0,8

Conceded

0,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+2,2

-1,0

This season — Premier League · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 62%

90%

33%

Points per game

2,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

71%

62%

Both score Ø 53%

48%

57%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

2,9

1,4

Conceded

0,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

+2,3

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

76% Possession 24%

18 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 1

1 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 1. · Watford 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	21	19	2	0	+49	59
2	Man United	22	14	5	3	+29	47
3	Chelsea	21	14	3	4	+25	45
4	Liverpool	22	12	8	2	+25	44
5	Tottenham	21	12	4	5	+21	40
6	Arsenal	21	11	5	5	+12	38
7	Burnley	22	9	7	6	+0	34
8	Leicester	22	8	6	8	+2	30
9	Everton	22	7	6	9	-9	27
10	Watford	21	7	4	10	-7	25
11	Huddersfield	22	6	6	10	-17	24
12	Brighton	22	5	8	9	-10	23
13	Newcastle	22	6	4	12	-10	22
14	Crystal Palace	22	5	7	10	-13	22
15	Bournemouth	22	5	6	11	-12	21
16	West Ham	21	5	6	10	-15	21
17	Southampton	22	4	8	10	-11	20
18	Stoke	22	5	5	12	-24	20
19	West Brom	22	2	10	10	-14	16
20	Swansea	22	4	4	14	-21	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	9	1	0	+29	28
2	Man United	11	8	2	1	+19	26
3	Arsenal	10	8	1	1	+15	25
4	Chelsea	11	8	1	2	+14	25
5	Liverpool	11	6	5	0	+17	23
6	Tottenham	10	6	3	1	+13	21
7	Everton	11	6	1	4	+2	19
8	Leicester	11	5	2	4	+2	17
9	Burnley	11	5	2	4	+0	17
10	Huddersfield	11	4	4	3	-2	16
11	Brighton	11	3	6	2	-2	15
12	West Ham	10	4	2	4	-3	14
13	Stoke	11	4	2	5	-7	14
14	Southampton	12	3	4	5	-3	13
15	Crystal Palace	11	3	4	4	-4	13
16	Bournemouth	11	3	3	5	-3	12
17	Watford	11	3	3	5	-9	12
18	Newcastle	11	3	2	6	-4	11
19	West Brom	11	1	7	3	-5	10
20	Swansea	11	2	2	7	-11	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	10	1	0	+20	31
2	Man United	11	6	3	2	+10	21
3	Liverpool	11	6	3	2	+8	21
4	Chelsea	10	6	2	2	+11	20
5	Tottenham	11	6	1	4	+8	19
6	Burnley	11	4	5	2	+0	17
7	Watford	10	4	1	5	+2	13
8	Leicester	11	3	4	4	+0	13
9	Arsenal	11	3	4	4	-3	13
10	Newcastle	11	3	2	6	-6	11
11	Bournemouth	11	2	3	6	-9	9
12	Crystal Palace	11	2	3	6	-9	9
13	Brighton	11	2	2	7	-8	8
14	Swansea	11	2	2	7	-10	8
15	Everton	11	1	5	5	-11	8
16	Huddersfield	11	2	2	7	-15	8
17	Southampton	10	1	4	5	-8	7
18	West Ham	11	1	4	6	-12	7
19	West Brom	11	1	3	7	-9	6
20	Stoke	11	1	3	7	-17	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.