Premier League
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Swansea
Tottenham
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Man City
|
21 | 19 | 2 | 0 | +49 | 59 |
| 2 |
Man United
|
22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | +29 | 47 |
| 3 |
Chelsea
|
21 | 14 | 3 | 4 | +25 | 45 |
| 4 |
Liverpool
|
22 | 12 | 8 | 2 | +25 | 44 |
| 5 |
Arsenal
|
21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | +12 | 38 |
| 6 |
Tottenham
|
20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | +19 | 37 |
| 7 |
Burnley
|
22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | +0 | 34 |
| 8 |
Leicester
|
22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | +2 | 30 |
| 9 |
Everton
|
22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | -9 | 27 |
| 10 |
Watford
|
21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | -7 | 25 |
| 11 |
Huddersfield
|
22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | -17 | 24 |
| 12 |
Brighton
|
22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -10 | 23 |
| 13 |
Newcastle
|
22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -10 | 22 |
| 14 |
Bournemouth
|
22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -12 | 21 |
| 15 |
Southampton
|
21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | -10 | 20 |
| 16 |
Stoke
|
22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -24 | 20 |
| 17 |
Crystal Palace
|
21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -14 | 19 |
| 18 |
West Ham
|
20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -16 | 18 |
| 19 |
West Brom
|
21 | 2 | 10 | 9 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 |
Swansea
|
21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -19 | 16 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Watford
Swansea
Liverpool
Swansea
Swansea
Crystal Palace
Everton
Swansea
Swansea
Man City
Robert Madley · 95 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.