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Conference League
Referee: F Zwayer
Celje
S U S S T
1–2
Full-time
Fiorentina
T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celje Fiorentina
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,8
3,3
Scored
2,0
2,0
Conceded
1,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 12/10 matches
Win Ø 46%
42%
50%
Points per game
1,4
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 69%
67%
70%
Both score Ø 74%
67%
80%
Average goals
4,0
4,2
Scored
2,2
2,7
Conceded
1,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,48 xG 1,01
54% Possession 46%
12 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 1
1 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 17
1 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Celje Fiorentina
27′
⚽ L. Ranieri 0–1
M. Folorunsho
35′
🟨 Matias Moreno
Half-time 0–1
46′
🔁 F. Parisi
↦ M. Moreno
49′
🟨 Luca Ranieri
53′
🟨 Nicolò Zaniolo
Damjan Vuklišević 🟨
55′
59′
ℹ️ Rolando Mandragora
VAR: Penalty confirmed
62′
⚽ R. Mandragora 0–2
63′
🔁 N. Fagioli
↦ D. Cataldi
63′
🔁 A. Richardson
↦ Y. Adli
1–2 L. Delaurier-Chaubet ⚽
68′
77′
🔁 Dodô
↦ M. Folorunsho
N. Iosifov 🔁
↦ M. Kvesić
83′
87′
🟨 Dodô
Edmilson 🔁
↦ L. Delaurier-Chaubet
89′
89′
🔁 M. Kean
↦ N. Zaniolo
96′
🟨 Fabiano Parisi
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Celje

3-4-2-1
41 Ricardo Silva G
2 Juanjo Nieto D
3 D. Vukliševič D
81 K. Nemanič D
7 A. Matko M
19 M. Zabukovnik M
88 T. Svetlin M
23 Ž. Karničnik M
35 L. Delaurier-Chaubet F
16 M. Kvesić F
11 S. Sešlar F
Bench (9)
20 N. Iosifov
30 Edmilson
5 C. Lhernault
4 M. Dulca
38 Z. Žužek
17 S. Gobec
10 N. Kouter
44 Ł. Bejger
12 L. Kolar

Coach: Albert Riera

Fiorentina

3-5-2
43 David de Gea G
5 M. Pongračić D
15 P. Comuzzo D
6 L. Ranieri D
22 M. Moreno M
8 R. Mandragora M
32 D. Cataldi M
29 Y. Adli M
90 M. Folorunsho M
9 L. Beltrán F
17 N. Zaniolo F
Bench (10)
65 F. Parisi
44 N. Fagioli
24 A. Richardson
2 Dodô
20 M. Kean
63 M. Caprini
10 A. Guðmundsson
30 T. Martinelli
61 L. Baroncelli
1 P. Terracciano

Coach: R. Palladino

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Zwayer · 152 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.