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Europa League
Referee: François Letexier
Freiburg
T U S T S
0–3
Full-time
Aston Villa
T T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Aston Villa
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,8
3,2
Scored
1,8
1,8
Conceded
2,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 14/14 matches
Win Ø 75%
64%
86%
Points per game
2,1
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 43%
50%
36%
Average goals
2,5
2,6
Scored
1,8
2,0
Conceded
0,7
0,6
Goal diff per game
+1,1
+1,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,27 xG 2,30
51% Possession 49%
4 Shots 17
2 Shots on target 6
0 Blocked shots 5
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
1 Corners 8
5 Offside 2
15 Free kicks against 15
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Freiburg Aston Villa
Philipp Treu 🟨
5′
15′
🟨 Emiliano Buendía
21′
🟨 Matty Cash
41′
⚽ Y. Tielemans 0–1
M. Rogers
45′
⚽ E. Buendia 0–2
J. McGinn
Half-time 0–3
58′
⚽ M. Rogers 0–3
E. Buendia
L. Holer 🔁
↦ N. Hofler
61′
M. Rosenfelder 🔁
↦ P. Lienhart
61′
66′
🔁 A. Onana
↦ V. Lindelof
J. Makengo 🔁
↦ L. Kubler
73′
D. Scherhant 🔁
↦ V. Grifo
73′
81′
🔁 I. Maatsen
↦ L. Digne
81′
🔁 J. Sancho
↦ E. Buendia
84′
🟨 John McGinn
C. Gunter 🔁
↦ J. Beste
86′
88′
🔁 T. Mings
↦ P. Torres
88′
🔁 Douglas Luiz
↦ Y. Tielemans
Full-time 0–3

Line-ups

Freiburg

4-2-3-1
1 N. Atubolu G
17 L. Kubler D
28 M. Ginter D
3 P. Lienhart D
29 P. Treu D
8 M. Eggestein M
27 N. Hofler M
19 J. Beste M
44 J. Manzambi M
32 V. Grifo M
31 I. Matanovic F
Bench (12)
21 F. Muller
24 J. Huth
9 L. Holer
26 M. Philipp
37 M. Rosenfelder
33 J. Makengo
43 B. Ogbus
30 C. Gunter
5 A. Jung
6 P. Osterhage
7 D. Scherhant
22 C. Irie

Coach: Julian Schuster

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1
23 E. Martinez G
2 M. Cash D
4 E. Konsa D
14 P. Torres D
12 L. Digne D
3 V. Lindelof M
8 Y. Tielemans M
7 J. McGinn M
27 M. Rogers M
10 E. Buendia M
11 O. Watkins F
Bench (12)
40 M. Bizot
64 J. Wright
5 T. Mings
31 L. Bailey
21 Douglas Luiz
24 A. Onana
22 I. Maatsen
9 H. Elliott
26 L. Bogarde
18 T. Abraham
19 J. Sancho
16 A. Garcia

Coach: Unai Emery

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

François Letexier · 69 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.