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Europa League
Referee: S Stegemann
Lazio
T S S U S
2–2
Full-time
Sturm Graz
T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Sturm Graz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,2
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 17%
17%
17%
Average goals
3,3
2,7
Scored
2,5
1,5
Conceded
0,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+0,3
This season — Europa League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 34%
67%
0%
Average goals
4,0
2,3
Scored
1,7
0,3
Conceded
2,3
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-1,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

54% Possession 46%
9 Shots 19
3 Shots on target 7
2 Blocked shots 4
5 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 0
2 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 15
4 Yellow cards 6
1 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

6. Oct -22 Sturm Graz – Lazio 0–0

Match report

Lazio Sturm Graz
22′
🟨 Sandro Ingolitsch
Manuel Lazzari 🟨
27′
27′
🟨 Otar Kiteishvili
44′
🟨 David Affengruber
1–0 C. Immobile ⚽
45′
Half-time 1–0
A. Marušić 🔁
↦ M. Zaccagni
46′
46′
🔁 W. Bøving
↦ E. Emegha
Manuel Lazzari 🟨
47′
Manuel Lazzari 🟥
47′
47′
🟨 Jon Gorenc Stanković
Ciro Immobile 🟨
48′
56′
⚽ W. Bøving 1–1
A. Prass
M. Vecino 🔁
↦ D. Cataldi
57′
S. Milinković-Savić 🔁
↦ T. Bašić
57′
57′
🔁 T. Horvat
↦ O. Kiteishvili
Felipe Anderson 🔁
↦ Luis Alberto
58′
2–1 Pedro ⚽
Felipe Anderson
71′
74′
🟨 Alexander Prass
M. Cancellieri 🔁
↦ C. Immobile
79′
79′
🔁 I. Ljubic
↦ J. Gorenc Stankovič
79′
🔁 J. Jantscher
↦ A. Ajeti
79′
🔁 M. Sarkaria
↦ S. Hierländer
83′
⚽ W. Bøving 2–2
T. Horvat
85′
🟨 Ivan Ljubić
Sergej Milinković-Savić 🟨
88′
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Lazio

4-3-3
94 I. Provedel G
29 M. Lazzari D
34 Mario Gila D
4 Patric D
23 E. Hysaj D
10 Luis Alberto M
32 D. Cataldi M
88 T. Bašić M
9 Pedro F
17 C. Immobile F
20 M. Zaccagni F
Bench (12)
77 A. Marušić
5 M. Vecino
21 S. Milinković-Savić
7 Felipe Anderson
11 M. Cancellieri
18 L. Romero
1 Luís Maximiano
26 Ş. Radu
15 N. Casale
13 A. Romagnoli
61 F. Magro
6 Marcos Antônio

Coach: M. Sarri

Sturm Graz

4-3-1-2
27 J. Siebenhandl G
24 S. Ingolitsch D
42 D. Affengruber D
5 G. Wüthrich D
44 A. Danté D
25 S. Hierländer M
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič M
8 A. Prass M
10 O. Kiteishvili M
20 E. Emegha F
9 A. Ajeti F
Bench (12)
15 W. Bøving
19 T. Horvat
30 I. Ljubic
13 J. Jantscher
11 M. Sarkaria
18 D. Oroz
37 M. Wels
6 A. Borković
32 T. Schützenauer
41 C. Giuliani
29 M. Fuseini
28 D. Schnegg

Coach: C. Ilzer

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Stegemann · 140 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.