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Champions League
Referee: C Turpin
Bayern Munich
U S S S S
2–2
Full-time
Real Madrid
U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,2
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,5
2,8
Scored
2,3
1,8
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 10/10 matches
Win Ø 70%
70%
70%
Points per game
2,3
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
60%
60%
Both score Ø 60%
50%
70%
Average goals
2,7
3,4
Scored
1,8
2,2
Conceded
0,9
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,9
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,58 xG 1,90
52% Possession 48%
14 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 5
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 5
0 Offside 2
11 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Bayern Munich Real Madrid
24′
⚽ Vinícius Júnior 0–1
T. Kroos
Noussair Mazraoui 🟨
43′
Half-time 0–1
Raphaël Guerreiro 🔁
↦ L. Goretzka
46′
1–1 L. Sané ⚽
K. Laimer
53′
2–1 H. Kane ⚽
57′
64′
🟨 Toni Kroos
65′
🔁 E. Camavinga
↦ Nacho
75′
🔁 L. Modrić
↦ J. Bellingham
76′
🔁 Brahim Díaz
↦ T. Kroos
S. Gnabry 🔁
↦ T. Müller
80′
Min-jae Kim 🟨
82′
83′
⚽ Vinícius Júnior 2–2
A. Davies 🔁
↦ L. Sané
87′
87′
🔁 Joselu
↦ Rodrygo
91′
🟨 Lucas Vázquez
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer G
6 J. Kimmich D
3 Kim Min-Jae D
15 E. Dier D
40 N. Mazraoui D
27 K. Laimer M
8 L. Goretzka M
42 J. Musiala M
25 T. Müller M
10 L. Sané M
9 H. Kane F
Bench (10)
22 Raphaël Guerreiro
7 S. Gnabry
19 A. Davies
17 Bryan Zaragoza
39 M. Tel
13 E. Choupo-Moting
26 S. Ulreich
45 A. Pavlović
2 D. Upamecano
18 Daniel Peretz

Coach: T. Tuchel

Real Madrid

4-4-2
13 A. Lunin G
17 Lucas Vázquez D
22 A. Rüdiger D
6 Nacho D
23 F. Mendy D
15 F. Valverde M
18 A. Tchouaméni M
8 T. Kroos M
11 Rodrygo M
5 J. Bellingham F
7 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (10)
12 E. Camavinga
10 L. Modrić
21 Brahim Díaz
14 Joselu
24 A. Güler
1 T. Courtois
20 Fran García
3 Éder Militão
19 Dani Ceballos
25 Kepa

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

C Turpin · 184 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.