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Champions League
Referee: S Marciniak
Ath Madrid
T U T S T
2–1
Full-time
Inter
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Inter
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
33%
100%
Points per game
1,2
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 25%
33%
17%
Average goals
3,0
2,8
Scored
1,5
2,7
Conceded
1,5
0,2
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+2,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 57%
57%
57%
Points per game
2,0
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 43%
57%
29%
Both score Ø 50%
57%
43%
Average goals
3,4
2,0
Scored
2,4
1,3
Conceded
1,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,4
+0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,73 xG 1,57
47% Possession 53%
23 Shots 15
9 Shots on target 5
6 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 7
5 Corners 1
21 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

20. Feb -24 Inter – Ath Madrid 1–0

Match report

Ath Madrid Inter
33′
⚽ F. Dimarco 0–1
N. Barella
1–1 A. Griezmann ⚽
35′
Mario Hermoso 🟨
41′
Half-time 1–1
Rodrigo Riquelme 🔁
↦ Samuel Lino
71′
Á. Correa 🔁
↦ R. De Paul
71′
73′
🔁 M. Darmian
↦ D. Dumfries
73′
🔁 F. Acerbi
↦ A. Bastoni
M. Depay 🔁
↦ Álvaro Morata
79′
Pablo Barrios 🔁
↦ N. Molina
79′
84′
🔁 Y. Bisseck
↦ F. Dimarco
84′
🔁 D. Frattesi
↦ N. Barella
2–1 M. Depay ⚽
Koke
87′
Koke 🟨
90′
César Azpilicueta 🔁
↦ Marcos Llorente
98′
102′
🔁 A. Sánchez
↦ M. Thuram
104′
🟨 Hakan Çalhanoğlu
Saúl 🔁
↦ A. Griezmann
105′
107′
🟨 Francesco Acerbi
111′
🔁 D. Klaassen
↦ H. Mkhitaryan
118′
🟨 Yann Bisseck
121′
⚽ H. Çalhanoğlu 2–2
3–2 M. Depay ⚽
122′
123′
❌ A. Sánchez
penalty missed
Saúl ❌
penalty missed
124′
125′
❌ D. Klaassen
penalty missed
4–2 Rodrigo Riquelme ⚽
126′
127′
⚽ F. Acerbi 4–3
5–3 Á. Correa ⚽
128′
129′
❌ L. Martínez
penalty missed
Full-time 5–3

Line-ups

Ath Madrid

3-5-2
13 J. Oblak G
15 S. Savić D
20 A. Witsel D
22 Hermoso D
16 N. Molina M
14 Marcos Llorente M
5 R. De Paul M
6 Koke M
12 Samuel Lino M
19 Álvaro Morata F
7 A. Griezmann F
Bench (11)
17 Rodrigo Riquelme
10 Á. Correa
9 M. Depay
24 Pablo Barrios
3 César Azpilicueta
8 Saúl
23 Reinildo
18 A. Vermeeren
4 Gabriel Paulista
1 H. Moldovan
31 Antonio Gomis

Coach: D. Simeone

Inter

3-5-2
1 Y. Sommer G
28 B. Pavard D
6 S. de Vrij D
95 A. Bastoni D
2 D. Dumfries M
23 N. Barella M
20 H. Çalhanoğlu M
22 H. Mkhitaryan M
32 F. Dimarco M
10 L. Martínez F
9 M. Thuram F
Bench (12)
36 M. Darmian
15 F. Acerbi
31 Y. Bisseck
16 D. Frattesi
70 A. Sánchez
14 D. Klaassen
21 K. Asllani
17 T. Buchanan
49 A. Sarr
50 A. Stanković
12 R. Di Gennaro
77 E. Audero

Coach: S. Inzaghi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Marciniak · 126 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,09 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.