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Champions League
Referee: I Kružliak
Real Madrid
S S S S U
2–1
Full-time
Shakhtar Donetsk
S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Shakhtar Donetsk
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/2 matches
Win Ø 67%
83%
50%
Points per game
2,7
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
3,0
3,5
Scored
2,3
2,5
Conceded
0,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+1,5
This season — Champions League · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 75%
100%
50%
Points per game
3,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
2,5
3,5
Scored
2,5
2,5
Conceded
0,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+2,5
+1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

59% Possession 41%
36 Shots 11
14 Shots on target 3
6 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 11
10 Corners 1
1 Offside 2
7 Free kicks against 14
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Real Madrid Shakhtar Donetsk
1–0 Rodrygo ⚽
13′
2–0 Vinícius Júnior ⚽
Rodrygo
28′
39′
⚽ O. Zubkov 2–1
B. Mykhailichenko
Half-time 2–1
55′
🟨 Valeriy Bondar
67′
🔁 D. Sikan
↦ O. Zubkov
67′
🔁 I. Petryak
↦ M. Shved
E. Camavinga 🔁
↦ A. Tchouaméni
75′
Marco Asensio 🔁
↦ Rodrygo
80′
88′
🔁 N. Đurasek
↦ H. Sudakov
88′
🔁 L. Traoré
↦ T. Stepanenko
92′
🟨 Mykhaylo Mudryk
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-3-3
13 A. Lunin G
2 Dani Carvajal D
3 Éder Militão D
4 D. Alaba D
23 F. Mendy D
15 F. Valverde M
18 A. Tchouaméni M
8 T. Kroos M
21 Rodrygo F
9 K. Benzema F
20 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (12)
12 E. Camavinga
11 Marco Asensio
7 E. Hazard
22 A. Rüdiger
17 Lucas Vázquez
26 Luis López
24 M. Díaz
30 Lucas Cañizares
6 Nacho
16 Odriozola
5 Vallejo
10 L. Modrić

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Shakhtar Donetsk

4-1-4-1
81 A. Trubin G
26 Y. Konoplya D
5 V. Bondar D
22 M. Matvienko D
15 B. Mykhailichenko D
6 T. Stepanenko M
9 M. Shved M
21 A. Bondarenko M
8 H. Sudakov M
10 M. Mudryk M
11 O. Zubkov F
Bench (12)
14 D. Sikan
34 I. Petryak
17 N. Đurasek
2 L. Traoré
4 S. Kryvtsov
23 Lucas Taylor
27 O. Ocheretko
1 O. Shevchenko
30 A. Pyatov
20 D. Topalov
32 E. Kozik
16 D. Kryskiv

Coach: I. Jovičević

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Kružliak · 33 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.