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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno José Costa

Famalicao

S T S S T

1–0

Full-time

Casa Pia

T U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Famalicao Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 39%

35%

43%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

43%

39%

Both score Ø 35%

35%

Average goals

2,3

1,9

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%

16 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Famalicao 13. · Casa Pia 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	24	21	2	1	+48	65
2	Porto	24	18	3	3	+38	57
3	Sp Braga	24	18	1	5	+32	55
4	Sp Lisbon	24	16	2	6	+26	50
5	Guimaraes	24	12	4	8	+0	40
6	Arouca	24	10	7	7	-3	37
7	Casa Pia	23	10	5	8	-3	35
8	Rio Ave	24	8	6	10	-5	30
9	Boavista	24	8	6	10	-11	30
10	Vizela	24	8	5	11	-1	29
11	Gil Vicente	24	8	5	11	-5	29
12	Chaves	24	7	8	9	-7	29
13	Famalicao	23	8	3	12	-9	27
14	Portimonense	24	8	2	14	-13	26
15	Estoril	24	6	4	14	-16	22
16	Maritimo	24	4	4	16	-28	16
17	Santa Clara	24	3	6	15	-19	15
18	Pacos Ferreira	24	4	3	17	-24	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	11	1	0	+28	34
2	Porto	12	10	0	2	+26	30
3	Sp Lisbon	12	10	0	2	+25	30
4	Guimaraes	13	8	2	3	+4	26
5	Sp Braga	11	8	1	2	+17	25
6	Rio Ave	12	7	1	4	+5	22
7	Arouca	12	7	1	4	+3	22
8	Boavista	12	5	5	2	+0	20
9	Famalicao	11	6	1	4	+3	19
10	Casa Pia	12	5	3	4	+1	18
11	Portimonense	12	5	2	5	-1	17
12	Gil Vicente	12	4	4	4	+0	16
13	Chaves	12	3	5	4	-1	14
14	Vizela	12	4	2	6	-1	14
15	Maritimo	12	3	2	7	-6	11
16	Estoril	11	3	2	6	-9	11
17	Santa Clara	12	2	4	6	-10	10
18	Pacos Ferreira	13	2	2	9	-14	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	10	1	1	+20	31
2	Sp Braga	13	10	0	3	+15	30
3	Porto	12	8	3	1	+12	27
4	Sp Lisbon	12	6	2	4	+1	20
5	Casa Pia	11	5	2	4	-4	17
6	Vizela	12	4	3	5	+0	15
7	Chaves	12	4	3	5	-6	15
8	Arouca	12	3	6	3	-6	15
9	Guimaraes	11	4	2	5	-4	14
10	Gil Vicente	12	4	1	7	-5	13
11	Estoril	13	3	2	8	-7	11
12	Boavista	12	3	1	8	-11	10
13	Portimonense	12	3	0	9	-12	9
14	Rio Ave	12	1	5	6	-10	8
15	Famalicao	12	2	2	8	-12	8
16	Pacos Ferreira	11	2	1	8	-10	7
17	Santa Clara	12	1	2	9	-9	5
18	Maritimo	12	1	2	9	-22	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.