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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hélder Malheiro

Estoril

U T T T T

2–0

Full-time

Casa Pia

S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

1,7

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

2,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 14/15 matches

Win Ø 41%

29%

53%

Points per game

1,1

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 31%

29%

33%

Both score Ø 38%

43%

33%

Average goals

2,4

1,7

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,4

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

55% Possession 45%

11 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 0

4 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 21

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Estoril 14. · Casa Pia 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	13	2	1	+28	41
2	Sp Braga	16	12	1	3	+25	37
3	Porto	16	11	3	2	+29	36
4	Sp Lisbon	16	9	2	5	+13	29
5	Casa Pia	15	8	3	4	+4	27
6	Guimaraes	15	7	3	5	-2	24
7	Arouca	16	6	5	5	-7	23
8	Vizela	16	6	3	7	+3	21
9	Chaves	16	5	6	5	-5	21
10	Rio Ave	16	5	5	6	-3	20
11	Portimonense	16	6	2	8	-4	20
12	Boavista	15	6	2	7	-9	20
13	Famalicao	16	5	2	9	-7	17
14	Estoril	14	4	4	6	-6	16
15	Santa Clara	16	3	5	8	-7	14
16	Gil Vicente	15	3	3	9	-10	12
17	Maritimo	16	2	4	10	-21	10
18	Pacos Ferreira	16	1	3	12	-21	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	8	1	0	+21	25
2	Porto	8	7	0	1	+23	21
3	Sp Lisbon	7	6	0	1	+15	18
4	Guimaraes	8	5	2	1	+4	17
5	Sp Braga	8	5	1	2	+10	16
6	Boavista	8	4	2	2	-2	14
7	Rio Ave	8	4	1	3	+2	13
8	Arouca	8	4	1	3	-1	13
9	Famalicao	7	4	0	3	+2	12
10	Casa Pia	8	3	2	3	+1	11
11	Portimonense	9	3	2	4	-2	11
12	Vizela	8	3	1	4	+3	10
13	Santa Clara	8	2	3	3	-3	9
14	Chaves	8	1	5	2	-1	8
15	Gil Vicente	8	2	2	4	-3	8
16	Maritimo	7	1	2	4	-3	5
17	Estoril	6	1	2	3	-6	5
18	Pacos Ferreira	8	0	2	6	-11	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	8	7	0	1	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+7	16
3	Casa Pia	7	5	1	1	+3	16
4	Porto	8	4	3	1	+6	15
5	Chaves	8	4	1	3	-4	13
6	Vizela	8	3	2	3	+0	11
7	Estoril	8	3	2	3	+0	11
8	Sp Lisbon	9	3	2	4	-2	11
9	Arouca	8	2	4	2	-6	10
10	Portimonense	7	3	0	4	-2	9
11	Rio Ave	8	1	4	3	-5	7
12	Guimaraes	7	2	1	4	-6	7
13	Boavista	7	2	0	5	-7	6
14	Santa Clara	8	1	2	5	-4	5
15	Famalicao	9	1	2	6	-9	5
16	Maritimo	9	1	2	6	-18	5
17	Gil Vicente	7	1	1	5	-7	4
18	Pacos Ferreira	8	1	1	6	-10	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.