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Premier League

Referee: S Attwell

Liverpool

T U S U S

2–0

Full-time

Newcastle

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

4,2

Scored

2,0

2,2

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 27/26 matches

Win Ø 60%

70%

50%

Points per game

2,4

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

63%

65%

Both score Ø 57%

56%

58%

Average goals

3,3

3,2

Scored

2,4

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,70 xG 0,23

61% Possession 39%

12 Shots 3

3 Shots on target 0

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 1. · Newcastle 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	27	19	7	1	+38	+35.6	64
2	Arsenal	27	15	9	3	+28	+20.2	54
3	Nott'm Forest	27	14	6	7	+11	+1.9	48
4	Man City	27	14	5	8	+16	+12.4	47
5	Chelsea	27	13	7	7	+16	+15.6	46
6	Newcastle	26	13	5	8	+10	+11.4	44
7	Bournemouth	27	12	7	8	+13	+12.8	43
8	Brighton	27	11	10	6	+5	+1.9	43
9	Fulham	27	11	9	7	+4	+7.4	42
10	Aston Villa	28	11	9	8	-5	+1.2	42
11	Brentford	27	11	5	11	+5	+0.8	38
12	Crystal Palace	27	9	9	9	+2	+6.4	36
13	Tottenham	27	10	3	14	+14	-0.4	33
14	Man United	27	9	6	12	-6	-5.9	33
15	Everton	27	7	11	9	-4	-4.4	32
16	West Ham	26	8	6	12	-17	-10.1	30
17	Wolves	27	6	4	17	-19	-12.9	22
18	Ipswich	27	3	8	16	-31	-28.3	17
19	Leicester	26	4	5	17	-34	-26.5	17
20	Southampton	27	2	3	22	-46	-39.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	12	9	2	1	+16	+14.6	29
2	Arsenal	13	8	4	1	+16	+14.5	28
3	Aston Villa	15	7	7	1	+7	+11.7	28
4	Man City	13	8	2	3	+11	+11.6	26
5	Nott'm Forest	13	7	4	2	+12	+5.7	25
6	Chelsea	13	7	4	2	+11	+12.8	25
7	Brentford	14	7	3	4	+4	+4.2	24
8	Newcastle	13	7	2	4	+7	+6.4	23
9	Bournemouth	13	6	3	4	+7	+8.0	21
10	Brighton	13	5	6	2	+4	+3.9	21
11	Fulham	14	5	5	4	-1	+2.1	20
12	Man United	14	6	1	7	-4	-0.5	19
13	Everton	14	4	6	4	+3	+1.2	18
14	Tottenham	14	5	2	7	+4	+0.1	17
15	Crystal Palace	14	3	5	6	-6	+5.1	14
16	West Ham	13	4	2	7	-11	-7.5	14
17	Wolves	13	3	1	9	-9	-5.3	10
18	Leicester	14	2	3	9	-16	-11.9	9
19	Ipswich	14	1	4	9	-20	-10.9	7
20	Southampton	13	1	1	11	-28	-23.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	10	5	0	+22	+21.0	35
2	Arsenal	14	7	5	2	+12	+5.7	26
3	Nott'm Forest	14	7	2	5	-1	-3.8	23
4	Crystal Palace	13	6	4	3	+8	+1.3	22
5	Bournemouth	14	6	4	4	+6	+4.8	22
6	Fulham	13	6	4	3	+5	+5.3	22
7	Brighton	14	6	4	4	+1	-2.1	22
8	Chelsea	14	6	3	5	+5	+2.8	21
9	Man City	14	6	3	5	+5	+0.9	21
10	Newcastle	13	6	3	4	+3	+5.0	21
11	Tottenham	13	5	1	7	+10	-0.5	16
12	West Ham	13	4	4	5	-6	-2.6	16
13	Brentford	13	4	2	7	+1	-3.4	14
14	Man United	13	3	5	5	-2	-5.4	14
15	Everton	13	3	5	5	-7	-5.6	14
16	Aston Villa	13	4	2	7	-12	-10.6	14
17	Wolves	14	3	3	8	-10	-7.6	12
18	Ipswich	13	2	4	7	-11	-17.4	10
19	Leicester	12	2	2	8	-18	-14.6	8
20	Southampton	14	1	2	11	-18	-15.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.