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Ligue 1
Referee: R Buquet
Nice
T S T S S
4–2
Full-time
St Etienne
T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice St Etienne
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,7
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
1,8
4,7
Scored
0,8
1,5
Conceded
1,0
3,2
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-1,7
This season — Ligue 1 · 35/35 matches
Win Ø 36%
51%
20%
Points per game
1,7
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 52%
46%
57%
Both score Ø 50%
34%
66%
Average goals
2,1
3,1
Scored
1,3
1,1
Conceded
0,8
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,4
-0,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

63% Possession 37%
14 Shots 12
7 Shots on target 6
3 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 2
4 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 13
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Nice 5. · St Etienne 18.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 36 24 8 4 +45 80
2 Marseille 36 20 8 8 +23 68
3 Monaco 36 19 8 9 +23 65
4 Rennes 35 19 5 11 +41 62
5 Nice 35 18 7 10 +15 61
6 Strasbourg 36 16 12 8 +20 60
7 Lens 36 16 10 10 +12 58
8 Lyon 36 15 11 10 +13 56
9 Nantes 35 14 9 12 +7 51
10 Lille 36 13 12 11 -2 51
11 Brest 36 13 9 14 -4 48
12 Reims 36 10 13 13 -1 43
13 Montpellier 36 12 7 17 -6 43
14 Angers 36 9 11 16 -12 38
15 Troyes 36 9 10 17 -14 37
16 Clermont 36 9 9 18 -29 36
17 Lorient 36 8 10 18 -28 34
18 St Etienne 35 7 10 18 -32 31
19 Metz 36 5 13 18 -30 28
20 Bordeaux 36 5 12 19 -41 27

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Nice St Etienne
11′
D. Bouanga 0–1
13′
ℹ️ Denis Bouanga
VAR: Goal confirmed
37′
🟨 Yvann Maçon
Flavius Daniliuc 🟨
44′
Half-time 0–2
49′
Z. Youssouf 0–2
R. Boudebouz
1–2 M. Bard
A. Gouiri
52′
54′
🟨 Eliaquim Mangala
2–2 A. Delort
60′
3–2 A. Delort
J. Kluivert
62′
64′
🔁 A. Aouchiche
↦ R. Boudebouz
64′
🔁 E. Crivelli
↦ A. Nordin
Justin Kluivert 🟨
65′
73′
🔁 A. Moueffek
↦ Z. Youssouf
E. Guessand 🔁
↦ A. Gouiri
74′
74′
🔁 S. Thioub
↦ Y. Maçon
M. Schneiderlin 🔁
↦ M. Lemina
78′
H. Boudaoui 🔁
↦ B. Brahimi
79′
4–2 H. Boudaoui
A. Delort
80′
81′
🔁 R. Hamouma
↦ D. Bouanga
C. Stengs 🔁
↦ J. Kluivert
83′
J. Amavi 🔁
↦ M. Bard
83′
85′
🟨 Harold Moukoudi
Full-time 4–2

Line-ups

Nice

4-4-2
40 W. Benítez G
4 Dante D
25 J. Todibo D
26 M. Bard D
5 F. Daniliuc D
18 M. Lemina M
8 P. Rosario M
7 A. Delort F
21 J. Kluivert M
11 A. Gouiri F
14 B. Brahimi M
Bench (9)
24 E. Guessand
6 M. Schneiderlin
28 H. Boudaoui
22 C. Stengs
12 J. Amavi
9 K. Dolberg
15 Danilo Barbosa
23 J. Lotomba
1 M. Bulka

Coach: C. Galtier

St Etienne

5-4-1
50 P. Bernardoni G
22 E. Mangala D
11 Gabriel Silva D
2 H. Moukoudi D
27 Y. Maçon D
4 S. Sow D
7 R. Boudebouz F
8 M. Camara M
28 Z. Youssouf M
20 D. Bouanga M
18 A. Nordin M
Bench (9)
17 A. Aouchiche
31 E. Crivelli
29 A. Moueffek
9 S. Thioub
21 R. Hamouma
40 E. Green
25 A. Dioussé
13 M. Trauco
3 M. Nade

Coach: P. Dupraz

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,59
U
4,14
B
5,55
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,83
U2,5
2,00
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

R Buquet · 155 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.