Premier League
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Fulham
Bournemouth
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Liverpool
|
17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | +23 | +22.5 | 42 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
|
18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | +19 | +16.0 | 36 |
| 3 |
Chelsea
|
18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | +17 | +10.7 | 35 |
| 4 |
Nott'm Forest
|
18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | +5 | +2.9 | 34 |
| 5 |
Man City
|
19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | +6 | +7.1 | 31 |
| 6 |
Newcastle
|
18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | +9 | +8.8 | 29 |
| 7 |
Bournemouth
|
18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | +6 | +12.8 | 29 |
| 8 |
Fulham
|
18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | +3 | +2.6 | 28 |
| 9 |
Aston Villa
|
18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | -3 | +4.9 | 28 |
| 10 |
Brighton
|
18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | +1 | -2.3 | 26 |
| 11 |
Brentford
|
18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | +0 | -3.0 | 24 |
| 12 |
Tottenham
|
18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | +13 | +2.3 | 23 |
| 13 |
West Ham
|
18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | -7 | -3.8 | 23 |
| 14 |
Man United
|
18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | -3 | +0.3 | 22 |
| 15 |
Everton
|
17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | -7 | -6.6 | 17 |
| 16 |
Crystal Palace
|
18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | -8 | -2.5 | 17 |
| 17 |
Wolves
|
18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -11 | -9.9 | 15 |
| 18 |
Leicester
|
19 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -20 | -19.7 | 14 |
| 19 |
Ipswich
|
18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -17 | -21.2 | 12 |
| 20 |
Southampton
|
18 | 1 | 3 | 14 | -26 | -21.9 | 6 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
B. Leno
G
T. Castagne
D
I. Diop
D
J. Andersen
D
C. Bassey
D
H. Wilson
M
S. Lukić
M
A. Iwobi
M
A. Robinson
M
R. Jiménez
F
Coach: Marco Silva
Kepa
G
J. Hill
D
I. Zabarnyi
D
Dean Huijsen
D
M. Kerkez
D
R. Christie
M
L. Cook
M
D. Brooks
M
P. Billing
M
A. Semenyo
M
Evanilson
F
Coach: Andoni Iraola
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Chelsea
Fulham
Fulham
Southampton
Liverpool
Fulham
Fulham
Arsenal
Fulham
Brighton
R Jones · 186 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,07 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.