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Serie A

Referee: F Maresca

Lecce

T S U T T

3–1

Full-time

Brescia

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Brescia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,2

4,3

Scored

1,2

Conceded

2,0

3,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-2,0

This season — Serie A · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 20%

21%

18%

Points per game

0,9

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

74%

65%

Both score Ø 59%

65%

53%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

1,2

0,9

Conceded

2,2

2,1

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

54% Possession 46%

13 Shots 10

10 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

5 Corners 10

2 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 18. · Brescia 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	34	25	5	4	+36	80
2	Atalanta	35	22	8	5	+51	74
3	Inter	34	21	9	4	+38	72
4	Lazio	34	21	6	7	+32	69
5	Milan	35	17	8	10	+11	59
6	Roma	34	17	7	10	+17	58
7	Napoli	35	16	8	11	+9	56
8	Sassuolo	35	13	9	13	+4	48
9	Verona	34	11	12	11	+0	45
10	Parma	35	12	7	16	-2	43
11	Bologna	35	11	10	14	-10	43
12	Cagliari	34	10	12	12	-1	42
13	Fiorentina	34	10	12	12	-2	42
14	Sampdoria	34	12	5	17	-11	41
15	Torino	34	11	4	19	-21	37
16	Udinese	34	9	9	16	-16	36
17	Genoa	34	8	9	17	-22	33
18	Lecce	34	7	8	19	-34	29
19	Brescia	34	6	6	22	-39	24
20	Spal	34	5	4	25	-40	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	17	15	2	0	+29	47
2	Lazio	17	12	3	2	+26	39
3	Atalanta	18	12	2	4	+27	38
4	Inter	17	10	5	2	+21	35
5	Roma	18	9	4	5	+8	31
6	Milan	17	8	5	4	+8	29
7	Verona	17	8	5	4	+5	29
8	Napoli	17	8	3	6	+3	27
9	Sassuolo	17	7	3	7	+7	24
10	Torino	17	7	3	7	-6	24
11	Parma	18	7	2	9	+3	23
12	Cagliari	17	6	4	7	+3	22
13	Sampdoria	17	6	4	7	-1	22
14	Udinese	17	5	6	6	-5	21
15	Fiorentina	18	4	8	6	-4	20
16	Bologna	17	4	7	6	-5	19
17	Genoa	17	6	1	10	-7	19
18	Lecce	17	3	5	9	-12	14
19	Brescia	17	3	4	10	-12	13
20	Spal	16	2	3	11	-17	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	17	11	4	2	+17	37
2	Atalanta	17	10	6	1	+24	36
3	Juventus	17	10	3	4	+7	33
4	Lazio	17	9	3	5	+6	30
5	Milan	18	9	3	6	+3	30
6	Napoli	18	8	5	5	+6	29
7	Roma	16	8	3	5	+9	27
8	Sassuolo	18	6	6	6	-3	24
9	Bologna	18	7	3	8	-5	24
10	Fiorentina	16	6	4	6	+2	22
11	Cagliari	17	4	8	5	-4	20
12	Parma	17	5	5	7	-5	20
13	Sampdoria	17	6	1	10	-10	19
14	Verona	17	3	7	7	-5	16
15	Udinese	17	4	3	10	-11	15
16	Lecce	17	4	3	10	-22	15
17	Genoa	17	2	8	7	-15	14
18	Torino	17	4	1	12	-15	13
19	Brescia	17	3	2	12	-27	11
20	Spal	18	3	1	14	-23	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.