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La Liga

Referee: J Martinez

Real Madrid

U S T S S

4–2

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 53%

70%

35%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

54%

46%

Both score Ø 53%

54%

51%

Average goals

2,9

2,6

Scored

2,0

1,1

Conceded

0,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,90 xG 0,81

74% Possession 26%

13 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 1

7 Offside 2

6 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Ath Bilbao 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	37	31	1	5	+61	+41.2	94
2	Real Madrid	37	26	5	6	+40	+35.6	83
3	Villarreal	37	21	6	10	+22	+10.6	69
4	Ath Madrid	37	21	6	10	+22	+11.3	69
5	Betis	37	14	15	8	+10	+10.1	57
6	Celta	37	13	12	12	+4	-0.3	51
7	Getafe	37	14	6	17	-7	-11.2	48
8	Vallecano	37	11	14	12	-4	+4.0	47
9	Valencia	37	12	10	15	-11	+2.6	46
10	Sociedad	37	11	12	14	-2	-3.1	45
11	Espanol	37	12	9	16	-12	-7.0	45
12	Ath Bilbao	37	13	6	18	-13	+9.6	45
13	Alaves	37	11	10	16	-11	-1.6	43
14	Sevilla	37	12	7	18	-13	-17.1	43
15	Osasuna	37	11	9	17	-5	-3.4	42
16	Elche	37	10	12	15	-8	-20.3	42
17	Levante	37	11	9	17	-13	-8.8	42
18	Girona	37	9	13	15	-16	-8.5	40
19	Mallorca	37	10	9	18	-13	-21.8	39
20	Oviedo	37	6	11	20	-31	-21.8	29

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	19	19	0	0	+47	+26.7	57
2	Real Madrid	18	15	1	2	+27	+23.5	46
3	Ath Madrid	19	15	1	3	+22	+19.6	46
4	Villarreal	18	14	1	3	+25	+10.8	43
5	Elche	19	9	8	2	+11	-2.2	35
6	Betis	18	9	6	3	+14	+10.7	33
7	Osasuna	19	9	5	5	+7	+9.6	32
8	Vallecano	19	7	10	2	+9	+10.7	31
9	Mallorca	18	8	6	4	+7	+0.9	30
10	Ath Bilbao	19	9	3	7	+1	+12.8	30
11	Sociedad	19	8	5	6	+6	+7.2	29
12	Valencia	18	7	6	5	+2	+9.1	27
13	Alaves	18	7	6	5	+1	+2.2	27
14	Levante	19	7	5	7	-2	+2.0	26
15	Sevilla	19	7	4	8	-1	-1.7	25
16	Espanol	18	7	4	7	-3	-0.2	25
17	Getafe	18	7	3	8	+1	-2.0	24
18	Girona	18	6	5	7	-6	-4.3	23
19	Celta	18	5	5	8	+0	+4.7	20
20	Oviedo	19	4	7	8	-9	-11.0	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	12	1	5	+14	+14.5	37
2	Real Madrid	19	11	4	4	+13	+12.1	37
3	Celta	19	8	7	4	+4	-5.1	31
4	Villarreal	19	7	5	7	-3	-0.2	26
5	Betis	19	5	9	5	-4	-0.5	24
6	Getafe	19	7	3	9	-8	-9.2	24
7	Ath Madrid	18	6	5	7	+0	-8.4	23
8	Espanol	19	5	5	9	-9	-6.8	20
9	Valencia	19	5	4	10	-13	-6.4	19
10	Sevilla	18	5	3	10	-12	-15.4	18
11	Girona	19	3	8	8	-10	-4.2	17
12	Sociedad	18	3	7	8	-8	-10.3	16
13	Levante	18	4	4	10	-11	-10.9	16
14	Alaves	19	4	4	11	-12	-3.8	16
15	Vallecano	18	4	4	10	-13	-6.7	16
16	Ath Bilbao	18	4	3	11	-14	-3.2	15
17	Osasuna	18	2	4	12	-12	-13.0	10
18	Oviedo	18	2	4	12	-22	-10.8	10
19	Mallorca	19	2	3	14	-20	-22.7	9
20	Elche	18	1	4	13	-19	-18.1	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.