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La Liga

Referee: Mateo Busquets Ferrer

Real Madrid

S U S S S

5–0

Full-time

Alaves

T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Alaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

2,5

1,3

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 56%

80%

31%

Points per game

2,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

54%

29%

Both score Ø 42%

46%

37%

Average goals

2,9

2,1

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

0,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,52 xG 1,28

72% Possession 28%

22 Shots 18

11 Shots on target 10

6 Blocked shots 3

10 Goalkeeper saves 6

4 Corners 1

0 Offside 2

6 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 1. · Alaves 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	35	28	6	1	+56	+34.3	90
2	Barcelona	35	23	7	5	+29	+36.5	76
3	Girona	35	23	6	6	+31	+12.5	75
4	Ath Madrid	35	22	4	9	+25	+21.0	70
5	Ath Bilbao	35	17	11	7	+22	+10.9	62
6	Betis	35	14	13	8	+5	-5.5	55
7	Sociedad	35	14	12	9	+11	+6.0	54
8	Villarreal	35	13	9	13	-1	-3.1	48
9	Valencia	35	13	9	13	-2	-4.9	48
10	Getafe	35	10	13	12	-7	-5.9	43
11	Alaves	35	11	9	15	-6	+0.7	42
12	Sevilla	35	10	11	14	-2	-9.9	41
13	Osasuna	36	11	8	17	-14	-8.7	41
14	Las Palmas	35	10	7	18	-14	-22.7	37
15	Mallorca	36	7	15	14	-12	-6.1	36
16	Vallecano	35	7	14	14	-16	-4.0	35
17	Celta	35	8	10	17	-13	-4.4	34
18	Cadiz	35	5	14	16	-25	-15.5	29
19	Granada	35	4	9	22	-32	-18.4	21
20	Almeria	35	2	11	22	-35	-12.9	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	18	16	1	1	+23	+18.5	49
2	Real Madrid	17	15	2	0	+34	+24.4	47
3	Girona	17	14	2	1	+27	+10.9	44
4	Barcelona	18	14	1	3	+19	+21.1	43
5	Ath Bilbao	18	11	6	1	+22	+15.8	39
6	Betis	18	9	7	2	+10	+6.9	34
7	Valencia	18	8	6	4	+8	+4.4	30
8	Getafe	17	8	5	4	+2	+3.3	29
9	Alaves	18	8	4	6	+3	+6.5	28
10	Sociedad	17	7	6	4	+7	+4.1	27
11	Villarreal	18	7	4	7	+4	+7.1	25
12	Mallorca	18	6	7	5	+1	-1.2	25
13	Sevilla	17	6	5	6	+2	-1.1	23
14	Cadiz	18	5	8	5	-3	+4.6	23
15	Las Palmas	17	6	4	7	+0	-6.5	22
16	Osasuna	18	6	4	8	-7	-0.1	22
17	Celta	17	5	5	7	-3	+11.1	20
18	Granada	18	4	6	8	-7	-2.0	18
19	Vallecano	17	3	8	6	-8	-1.2	17
20	Almeria	17	0	8	9	-17	+0.1	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	18	13	4	1	+22	+9.9	43
2	Barcelona	17	9	6	2	+10	+15.4	33
3	Girona	18	9	4	5	+4	+1.6	31
4	Sociedad	18	7	6	5	+4	+1.8	27
5	Ath Bilbao	17	6	5	6	+0	-4.9	23
6	Villarreal	17	6	5	6	-5	-10.2	23
7	Ath Madrid	17	6	3	8	+2	+2.5	21
8	Betis	17	5	6	6	-5	-12.4	21
9	Osasuna	18	5	4	9	-7	-8.6	19
10	Sevilla	18	4	6	8	-4	-8.9	18
11	Vallecano	18	4	6	8	-8	-2.8	18
12	Valencia	17	5	3	9	-10	-9.3	18
13	Las Palmas	18	4	3	11	-14	-16.2	15
14	Getafe	18	2	8	8	-9	-9.2	14
15	Alaves	17	3	5	9	-9	-5.8	14
16	Celta	18	3	5	10	-10	-15.4	14
17	Mallorca	18	1	8	9	-13	-4.9	11
18	Almeria	18	2	3	13	-18	-13.0	9
19	Cadiz	17	0	6	11	-22	-20.0	6
20	Granada	17	0	3	14	-25	-16.4	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.