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Champions League
Referee: D Orsato
RB Leipzig
U S S S U
3–2
Full-time
Real Madrid
S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,3
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,8
2,8
Scored
2,7
2,2
Conceded
1,2
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+1,5
This season — Champions League · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 63%
50%
75%
Points per game
1,5
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,3
2,5
Scored
1,5
2,0
Conceded
1,8
0,5
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

44% Possession 56%
14 Shots 12
6 Shots on target 6
3 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 8
1 Offside 0
7 Free kicks against 6
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

14. Sep -22 Real Madrid – RB Leipzig 2–0

Match report

RB Leipzig Real Madrid
1–0 J. Gvardiol ⚽
13′
2–0 C. Nkunku ⚽
18′
44′
⚽ Vinícius Júnior 2–1
Marco Asensio
Half-time 2–1
49′
🟨 Lucas Vázquez
68′
🔁 D. Alaba
↦ Nacho
68′
🔁 Dani Carvajal
↦ Lucas Vázquez
A. Diallo 🔁
↦ D. Raum
69′
T. Werner 🔁
↦ André Silva
69′
Dani Olmo 🔁
↦ E. Forsberg
69′
76′
🔁 E. Hazard
↦ T. Kroos
3–1 T. Werner ⚽
M. Simakan
81′
K. Kampl 🔁
↦ A. Haidara
84′
B. Henrichs 🔁
↦ M. Simakan
89′
94′
⚽ Rodrygo 3–2
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

RB Leipzig

4-2-3-1
21 J. Blaswich G
2 M. Simakan D
4 W. Orbán D
32 J. Gvardiol D
22 D. Raum D
24 X. Schlager M
8 A. Haidara M
17 D. Szoboszlai M
18 C. Nkunku M
10 E. Forsberg M
19 André Silva F
Bench (8)
37 A. Diallo
11 T. Werner
7 Dani Olmo
44 K. Kampl
39 B. Henrichs
9 Y. Poulsen
34 J. Nickisch
38 Hugo Novoa

Coach: M. Rose

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1
1 T. Courtois G
17 Lucas Vázquez D
3 Éder Militão D
6 Nacho D
22 A. Rüdiger D
18 A. Tchouaméni M
8 T. Kroos M
11 Marco Asensio M
12 E. Camavinga M
20 Vinícius Júnior M
21 Rodrygo F
Bench (11)
4 D. Alaba
2 Dani Carvajal
7 E. Hazard
39 Á. Rodríguez
16 Odriozola
32 Carlos Dotor
33 Sergio Arribas
26 Luis López
5 Vallejo
13 A. Lunin
23 F. Mendy

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Orsato · 98 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.