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La Liga

Referee: Carlos Del Cerro

Villarreal

S S U S S

1–4

Full-time

Barcelona

S U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Barcelona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

0,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

This season — La Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 56%

48%

64%

Points per game

1,6

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

64%

Both score Ø 58%

64%

52%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,6

2,2

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

32% Possession 68%

11 Shots 18

4 Shots on target 12

1 Blocked shots 2

9 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 6

1 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 5. · Barcelona 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	34	23	8	3	+41	77
2	Barcelona	33	21	7	5	+39	70
3	Ath Madrid	34	16	14	4	+21	62
4	Sevilla	33	15	12	6	+15	57
5	Villarreal	33	16	6	11	+13	54
6	Getafe	34	14	11	9	+11	53
7	Sociedad	33	15	5	13	+8	50
8	Ath Bilbao	34	12	12	10	+9	48
9	Granada	34	13	8	13	+2	47
10	Valencia	34	12	11	11	-7	47
11	Osasuna	34	11	12	11	-7	45
12	Levante	33	12	6	15	-5	42
13	Valladolid	34	8	15	11	-9	39
14	Betis	34	9	11	14	-11	38
15	Celta	34	7	14	13	-10	35
16	Eibar	33	9	8	16	-16	35
17	Alaves	34	9	8	17	-19	35
18	Mallorca	34	8	5	21	-24	29
19	Leganes	34	6	10	18	-24	28
20	Espanol	34	5	9	20	-27	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	15	2	0	+36	47
2	Real Madrid	17	13	4	0	+26	43
3	Ath Madrid	17	11	5	1	+16	38
4	Valencia	17	9	7	1	+11	34
5	Ath Bilbao	17	9	4	4	+10	31
6	Sociedad	17	9	3	5	+14	30
7	Getafe	17	8	6	3	+9	30
8	Granada	17	9	3	5	+7	30
9	Villarreal	16	8	5	3	+12	29
10	Levante	16	8	4	4	+8	28
11	Sevilla	16	7	7	2	+8	28
12	Betis	17	8	4	5	+5	28
13	Alaves	17	7	5	5	+6	26
14	Mallorca	17	7	3	7	+2	24
15	Osasuna	17	6	6	5	-4	24
16	Eibar	17	7	2	8	-2	23
17	Celta	17	5	7	5	+3	22
18	Valladolid	17	4	10	3	+2	22
19	Leganes	17	4	4	9	-10	16
20	Espanol	17	2	5	10	-14	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	17	10	4	3	+15	34
2	Sevilla	17	8	5	4	+7	29
3	Villarreal	17	8	1	8	+1	25
4	Ath Madrid	17	5	9	3	+5	24
5	Barcelona	16	6	5	5	+3	23
6	Getafe	17	6	5	6	+2	23
7	Osasuna	17	5	6	6	-3	21
8	Sociedad	16	6	2	8	-6	20
9	Ath Bilbao	17	3	8	6	-1	17
10	Granada	17	4	5	8	-5	17
11	Valladolid	17	4	5	8	-11	17
12	Levante	17	4	2	11	-13	14
13	Celta	17	2	7	8	-13	13
14	Espanol	17	3	4	10	-13	13
15	Valencia	17	3	4	10	-18	13
16	Eibar	16	2	6	8	-14	12
17	Leganes	17	2	6	9	-14	12
18	Betis	17	1	7	9	-16	10
19	Alaves	17	2	3	12	-25	9
20	Mallorca	17	1	2	14	-26	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.