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Svenska Cupen
Referee: B Pandzic
AIK
T S T U S
3–0
Full-time
Varberg
S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AIK Varberg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,2
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,2
3,5
Scored
1,2
1,7
Conceded
1,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,2
This season — Svenska Cupen · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 34%
67%
0%
Average goals
3,7
2,3
Scored
2,7
1,7
Conceded
1,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match AIK 16. · Varberg 19.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Hammarby 4 4 0 0 +15 12
2 Malmo FF 4 4 0 0 +13 12
3 Hacken 4 4 0 0 +12 12
4 Djurgarden 4 4 0 0 +10 12
5 Kalmar 4 4 0 0 +9 12
6 Mjallby 4 4 0 0 +5 12
7 GAIS 5 4 0 1 +5 12
8 Norrkoping 4 3 1 0 +7 10
9 Sirius 4 3 0 1 +8 9
10 IK brage 4 3 0 1 +6 9
11 Halmstad 4 3 0 1 +5 9
12 Trelleborg 4 3 0 1 +4 9
13 Degerfors 4 3 0 1 +4 9
14 Orebro SK 4 3 0 1 +3 9
15 Trollhättan 5 3 0 2 -2 9
16 AIK 3 2 1 0 +5 7
17 Vasteras SK 3 2 1 0 +4 7
18 Helsingborg 4 2 0 2 +6 6
19 Varberg 3 2 0 1 +3 6
20 Dalkurd FF 4 2 0 2 +1 6
21 Skövde AIK 4 2 0 2 +1 6
22 Goteborg 4 2 0 2 -1 6
23 Landskrona 4 2 0 2 -3 6
24 IFK Luleå 5 2 0 3 -3 6
25 Oskarshamns AIK 5 2 0 3 -4 6
26 Onsala 5 2 0 3 -6 6
27 Utsikten 4 1 1 2 -2 4
28 Sundsvall 4 1 1 2 -7 4
29 Norrby IF 4 1 1 2 -7 4
30 Västra Frölunda 2 1 0 1 +5 3
31 Nyköping 2 1 0 1 +4 3
32 Tvååker 2 1 0 1 +3 3
33 IF Karlstad 2 1 0 1 +2 3
34 Österlen 2 1 0 1 +1 3
35 Vasalund 2 1 0 1 +1 3
36 IFK Östersund 2 1 0 1 +1 3
37 Tord 2 1 0 1 +0 3
38 Stockholm Internazionale 2 1 0 1 +0 3
39 Sandviken 2 1 0 1 +0 3
40 Älmhults 2 1 0 1 +0 3
41 Lund 2 1 0 1 +0 3
42 Gauthiod 2 1 0 1 +0 3
43 Brommapojkarna 4 1 0 3 -1 3
44 Husqvarna 2 1 0 1 -1 3
45 Hudiksvall 2 1 0 1 -1 3
46 Stocksund 2 1 0 1 -1 3
47 Hässleholms IF 2 1 0 1 -1 3
48 Ljungskile SK 2 1 0 1 -2 3
49 Torns 2 1 0 1 -2 3
50 Enköping 2 1 0 1 -2 3
51 Örebro Syrianska 2 1 0 1 -2 3
52 IFK Österåker 2 1 0 1 -2 3
53 Ostersunds FK 3 1 0 2 -3 3
54 Brålanda 2 1 0 1 -5 3
55 Jonkopings Sodra 4 1 0 3 -5 3
56 Arlanda 1 0 1 0 +0 1
57 Gute 1 0 1 0 +0 1
58 Eneby 1 0 1 0 +0 1
59 Haninge 2 0 1 1 -2 1
60 Täby 2 0 1 1 -2 1
61 Sleipner 2 0 1 1 -2 1
62 Ullared 1 0 0 1 -1 0
63 IFK Malmö 1 0 0 1 -1 0
64 Olympic 1 0 0 1 -1 0
65 Skiljebo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
66 Sollentuna 1 0 0 1 -1 0
67 Friska Viljor 1 0 0 1 -1 0
68 Asarum 1 0 0 1 -1 0
69 Umeå FC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
70 Lindome 1 0 0 1 -1 0
71 Oster 1 0 0 1 -1 0
72 Uppsala 1 0 0 1 -1 0
73 Eskilsminne 1 0 0 1 -1 0
74 Elfsborg 1 0 0 1 -1 0
75 AFC Eskilstuna 1 0 0 1 -1 0
76 Lidingö 1 0 0 1 -2 0
77 Motala 1 0 0 1 -2 0
78 Angered BK 1 0 0 1 -2 0
79 Karlberg 1 0 0 1 -2 0
80 Räppe 1 0 0 1 -2 0
81 Varnamo 1 0 0 1 -2 0
82 Huddinge 1 0 0 1 -2 0
83 Korsnäs 1 0 0 1 -2 0
84 Vänersborgs FK 1 0 0 1 -2 0
85 Orgryte 1 0 0 1 -2 0
86 Järfälla 1 0 0 1 -2 0
87 Lucksta 1 0 0 1 -2 0
88 Lidköping 1 0 0 1 -2 0
89 Vänersborgs IF 1 0 0 1 -4 0
90 Simrishamn 1 0 0 1 -4 0
91 Nordvärmland 1 0 0 1 -4 0
92 Angelholms FF 1 0 0 1 -5 0
93 Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1 0 0 1 -5 0
94 Torslanda 1 0 0 1 -6 0
95 Assyriska Turabdin 1 0 0 1 -6 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

AIK Varberg
1–0 B. Hussein
2′
30′
🟨 R. Tranberg
42′
🟨 A. Al Hamlawi
Half-time 1–0
J. Durmaz 🟨
47′
59′
🟨 Eliton Junior
2–0 J. Haliti
60′
69′
🔁 Ö. Pektas
↦ Eliton Júnior
69′
🔁 Y. El Ouatki
↦ R. Tranberg
V. Thill 🔁
↦ O. Faraj
75′
79′
🔁 D. Alfonsi
↦ V. Karlsson
79′
🔁 J. Sundström
↦ I. Lushaku
3–0 J. Guidetti
81′
R. Tihi 🔁
↦ A. Milošević
82′
C. Kabuye 🔁
↦ V. Fischer
87′
J. Ceesay 🔁
↦ J. Durmaz
87′
88′
🔁 L. Frigell Jansson
↦ N. Dahlström
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

AIK

K. Nordfeldt
S. Papagiannopoulos
A. Milošević
J. Haliti
E. Otieno
Rui Modesto
J. Durmaz
B. Hussein
J. Guidetti
V. Fischer
O. Faraj
Bench (7)
V. Thill
R. Tihi
C. Kabuye
J. Ceesay
A. Björnström
B. Janošević
E. Durmaz

Coach: A. Brännström

Varberg

F. Andersson
J. Lindner
N. Dahlström
V. Rönnberg
Vinícius Nogueira
R. Tranberg
L. Le Roux
Eliton Júnior
V. Karlsson
I. Lushaku
A. Al Hamlawi
Bench (7)
Ö. Pektas
Y. El Ouatki
D. Alfonsi
J. Sundström
L. Frigell Jansson
D. Olsson
H. Zackrisson

Coach: J. Persson

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

B Pandzic · 23 kamper i vår database

🟥 Red cards: 0,05 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.