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Copa del Rey

Referee: Alejandro Quintero

Ceuta

S S S T S

2–3

Full-time

Osasuna

S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ceuta Osasuna

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/6 matches

Win Ø 65%

80%

50%

Points per game

2,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

40%

50%

Both score Ø 27%

20%

33%

Average goals

2,6

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Copa del Rey · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

1,0

5,0

Scored

1,0

5,0

Conceded

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+5,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Ceuta 47. · Osasuna 24. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Celta	2	2	0	0	+11	6
2	Las Palmas	2	2	0	0	+8	6
3	Betis	2	2	0	0	+7	6
4	Vallecano	2	2	0	0	+6	6
5	Barbastro	2	2	0	0	+6	6
6	Valladolid	2	2	0	0	+5	6
7	Pontevedra	2	2	0	0	+4	6
8	Elche	2	2	0	0	+4	6
9	Valencia	2	2	0	0	+3	6
10	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+3	6
11	Santander	2	2	0	0	+2	6
12	Almeria	2	2	0	0	+2	6
13	Ourense CF	2	2	0	0	+2	6
14	Eldense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
15	Zaragoza	2	1	1	0	+4	4
16	Girona	2	1	1	0	+4	4
17	Granada	2	1	1	0	+2	4
18	Tenerife	2	1	1	0	+2	4
19	Estepona	2	1	1	0	+1	4
20	Leganes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
21	Zamora	2	1	1	0	+1	4
22	UD Logroñés	2	1	1	0	+1	4
23	Yeclano	2	1	0	1	+5	3
24	Osasuna	1	1	0	0	+5	3
25	Deportiva Minera	1	1	0	0	+5	3
26	Sociedad	1	1	0	0	+5	3
27	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	+4	3
28	Unionistas de Salamanca	2	1	0	1	+3	3
29	Burgos	1	1	0	0	+3	3
30	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+3	3
31	Getafe	1	1	0	0	+3	3
32	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+2	3
33	Vic	2	1	0	1	+2	3
34	Cadiz	2	1	0	1	+2	3
35	Barakaldo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
36	Ferrol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	3
38	Cultural Leonesa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
39	Cacereño	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Orihuela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Marbella	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Andorra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Cartagena	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Alaves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Conquense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Ceuta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Europa Fc	2	1	0	1	+0	3
49	Gimnastic	2	1	0	1	+0	3
50	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
51	Parla Escuela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
52	Chiclana	2	1	0	1	-1	3
53	Astur	2	1	0	1	-1	3
54	Manises	2	1	0	1	-1	3
55	Sant Andreu	2	1	0	1	-1	3
56	Ejea	2	1	0	1	-1	3
57	UD San Pedro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
58	Villamuriel	2	1	0	1	-4	3
59	Salamanca UDS	2	1	0	1	-6	3
60	Olot	1	0	1	0	+0	1
61	Cordoba	1	0	1	0	+0	1
62	Selaya	1	0	1	0	+0	1
63	Baztán	1	0	1	0	+0	1
64	Playas Sotavento	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Escobedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Ponferradina	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Oviedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Real Ávila	2	0	1	1	-2	1
69	San Tirso	2	0	1	1	-4	1
70	Gévora	2	0	1	1	-5	1
71	Ontiñena	2	0	1	1	-7	1
72	Lanzarote	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Malaga	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Langreo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Bergantiños	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Mirandes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	SS Reyes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Don Benito	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Numancia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Eibar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Beasain	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Atlético Paso	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Sonseca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Aurrerá Vitoria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Alcorcon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Xerez	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
99	Lleida Esportiu	1	0	0	1	-2	0
100	Dolorense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
101	Cuarte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
102	Alfaro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
103	Badalona	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Promesas EDF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Cortes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Llanera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Móstoles	1	0	0	1	-3	0
108	Levante	1	0	0	1	-3	0
109	CD Coria	1	0	0	1	-3	0
110	Las Rozas	1	0	0	1	-3	0
111	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-3	0
112	L'Hospitalet	1	0	0	1	-4	0
113	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
114	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-4	0
115	Amorebieta	1	0	0	1	-4	0
116	Sporting Mahón	1	0	0	1	-4	0
117	Extremadura 1924	1	0	0	1	-4	0
118	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
119	Tudelano	1	0	0	1	-5	0
120	Jove Español	1	0	0	1	-5	0
121	Laredo	1	0	0	1	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barbastro	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Pontevedra	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Estepona	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	UD Logroñés	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Vic	2	1	0	1	+2	3
6	Cacereño	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Santander	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Ourense CF	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Conquense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Europa Fc	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Chiclana	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Astur	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Sant Andreu	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Ejea	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	UD San Pedro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
16	Villamuriel	2	1	0	1	-4	3
17	Salamanca UDS	2	1	0	1	-6	3
18	Zaragoza	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Olot	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Baztán	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Zamora	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Escobedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Real Ávila	2	0	1	1	-2	1
24	San Tirso	2	0	1	1	-4	1
25	Gévora	2	0	1	1	-5	1
26	Lanzarote	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Cultural Leonesa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Langreo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Bergantiños	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	SS Reyes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Don Benito	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Cadiz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Numancia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Beasain	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Gimnastic	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Atlético Paso	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Yeclano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Sonseca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Parla Escuela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Xerez	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Lleida Esportiu	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Dolorense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Cuarte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Alfaro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Badalona	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Cortes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Llanera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Móstoles	1	0	0	1	-3	0
56	CD Coria	1	0	0	1	-3	0
57	Las Rozas	1	0	0	1	-3	0
58	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-3	0
59	Manises	1	0	0	1	-3	0
60	L'Hospitalet	1	0	0	1	-4	0
61	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
62	Extremadura 1924	1	0	0	1	-4	0
63	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
64	Tudelano	1	0	0	1	-5	0
65	Jove Español	1	0	0	1	-5	0
66	Laredo	1	0	0	1	-6	0
67	Ontiñena	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Celta	2	2	0	0	+11	6
2	Las Palmas	2	2	0	0	+8	6
3	Betis	2	2	0	0	+7	6
4	Vallecano	2	2	0	0	+6	6
5	Valladolid	2	2	0	0	+5	6
6	Elche	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Valencia	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+3	6
9	Almeria	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	Eldense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
11	Girona	2	1	1	0	+4	4
12	Granada	2	1	1	0	+2	4
13	Tenerife	2	1	1	0	+2	4
14	Leganes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
15	Yeclano	1	1	0	0	+6	3
16	Osasuna	1	1	0	0	+5	3
17	Deportiva Minera	1	1	0	0	+5	3
18	Sociedad	1	1	0	0	+5	3
19	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	+4	3
20	Zaragoza	1	1	0	0	+4	3
21	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	1	0	0	+4	3
22	Burgos	1	1	0	0	+3	3
23	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+3	3
24	Cadiz	1	1	0	0	+3	3
25	Getafe	1	1	0	0	+3	3
26	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+2	3
27	Barakaldo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Manises	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Ferrol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Cultural Leonesa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
32	Santander	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Ourense CF	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Gimnastic	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Zamora	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Orihuela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Marbella	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Andorra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Cartagena	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Alaves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Parla Escuela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Ceuta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Cordoba	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Selaya	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Ontiñena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Playas Sotavento	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Ponferradina	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Oviedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Malaga	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Mirandes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Eibar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Aurrerá Vitoria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Alcorcon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Promesas EDF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Levante	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-4	0
65	Amorebieta	1	0	0	1	-4	0
66	Sporting Mahón	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.