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Ekstraklasa
Referee: S Marciniak
Rakow
U S S T S
0–2
Full-time
Jagiellonia
U U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rakow Jagiellonia
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,3
2,7
Scored
2,0
1,5
Conceded
1,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ekstraklasa · 31/31 matches
Win Ø 44%
45%
42%
Points per game
1,6
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
45%
68%
Both score Ø 63%
58%
68%
Average goals
2,6
2,9
Scored
1,5
1,6
Conceded
1,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

3,28 xG 1,19
60% Possession 40%
25 Shots 13
3 Shots on target 7
9 Blocked shots 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 4
0 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Rakow 4. · Jagiellonia 3.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Lech Poznan 32 15 11 6 +15 +27.8 56
2 Gornik Zabrze 32 14 8 10 +7 -3.6 50
3 Jagiellonia 31 13 10 8 +12 -3.8 49
4 Rakow 31 14 7 10 +8 +8.2 49
5 Zaglebie 32 13 9 10 +9 -7.3 48
6 GKS Katowice 32 14 6 12 +6 -5.4 48
7 Wisla Plock 32 12 9 11 -3 -2.2 45
8 Radomiak Radom 32 11 11 10 +5 -1.4 44
9 Legia 32 10 13 9 +0 +3.1 43
10 Lechia Gdansk 32 12 7 13 -1 +5.6 43
11 Motor Lublin 32 10 12 10 -3 -9.9 42
12 Piast Gliwice 32 11 8 13 -1 -0.8 41
13 Pogon Szczecin 32 12 5 15 -3 +4.2 41
14 Cracovia 32 9 13 10 -3 +2.5 40
15 Widzew Lodz 32 11 6 15 +0 +4.2 39
16 Korona Kielce 32 10 9 13 -1 -3.8 39
17 Arka Gdynia 32 9 9 14 -23 -8.2 36
18 Nieciecza 32 7 7 18 -24 -9.1 28

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Rakow Jagiellonia
T. Pienko 🔁
↦ L. Diaby-Fadiga
10′
31′
🟨 Norbert Wojtuszek
34′
Y. Kobayashi 0–1
S. Lozano
Half-time 0–1
Oskar Repka 🟨
50′
52′
🟨 Bernardo Vital
55′
🔁 A. Konstantopoulos
↦ B. Vital
55′
🔁 B. Mazurek
↦ S. Lozano
65′
🟨 Apostolos Konstantopoulos
L. Rocha 🔁
↦ P. Makuch
67′
I. Lopez 🔁
↦ M. Ameyaw
67′
74′
🟨 Taras Romanczuk
V. Kochergin 🔁
↦ M. Bulat
79′
80′
🔁 M. Nahuel
↦ J. Imaz
80′
🔁 E. Kozlowski
↦ A. Pozo
83′
K. Szmyt 0–2
M. Nahuel
89′
🔁 B. Wdowik
↦ K. Szmyt
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Rakow

3-4-3
1 K. Trelowski G
7 F. Tudor D
25 B. Racovitan D
4 S. Svarnas D
19 M. Ameyaw M
6 O. Repka M
5 M. Bulat M
11 Adriano M
80 L. Diaby-Fadiga F
18 J. Brunes F
9 P. Makuch F
Bench (12)
48 O. Zych
29 W. Zolneczko
27 P. Dawidowicz
30 V. Kochergin
17 L. Rocha
8 T. Pienko
44 B. Mircetic
24 Z. Arsenic
10 I. Lopez
20 J. C. Silva
2 A. Mosor
35 M. Ilenic

Coach: Dawid Kroczek

Jagiellonia

4-2-3-1
50 S. Abramowicz G
15 N. Wojtuszek D
13 B. Vital D
4 Y. Kobayashi D
23 G. Montoia D
6 T. Romanczuk M
21 S. Lozano M
7 A. Pozo M
11 J. Imaz M
77 K. Szmyt M
10 A. Pululu F
Bench (11)
66 A. Damasiewicz
19 M. Nahuel
31 L. Flach
44 A. Konstantopoulos
91 S. Pankiewicz
85 E. Kozlowski
9 D. Rallis
27 B. Wdowik
14 S. Bazdar
8 D. Drachal
86 B. Mazurek

Coach: Adrian Siemieniec

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
U
B ✓
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

S Marciniak · 120 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,09 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.