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Ekstraklasa
Referee: T Kwiatkowski
1–1
Full-time
Lech Poznan
U S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Radomiak Radom Lech Poznan
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
1,8
3,8
Scored
0,3
2,0
Conceded
1,5
1,8
Goal diff per game
-1,2
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ekstraklasa · 28/28 matches
Win Ø 39%
32%
46%
Points per game
1,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 45%
39%
50%
Both score Ø 45%
39%
50%
Average goals
2,1
2,4
Scored
1,0
1,4
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

33% Possession 67%
6 Shots 17
2 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 7
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 6
0 Offside 1
16 Free kicks against 20
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Radomiak Radom 14. · Lech Poznan 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Rakow 29 21 5 3 +37 68
2 Legia 29 16 9 4 +14 57
3 Pogon Szczecin 29 14 8 7 +6 50
4 Lech Poznan 28 13 9 6 +13 48
5 Warta Poznan 29 12 8 9 +8 44
6 Piast Gliwice 29 12 6 11 +4 42
7 Cracovia 29 11 8 10 +7 41
8 Widzew Lodz 29 10 8 11 -2 38
9 Jagiellonia 29 8 12 9 +3 36
10 Wisla Plock 29 10 6 13 -1 36
11 Gornik Zabrze 29 9 8 12 -3 35
12 Stal Mielec 29 9 8 12 -4 35
13 Korona Kielce 29 9 8 12 -8 35
14 Radomiak Radom 28 9 7 12 -6 34
15 Zaglebie 29 8 8 13 -16 32
16 Slask Wroclaw 29 7 10 12 -14 31
17 Lechia Gdansk 29 7 5 17 -20 26
18 Legnica 29 4 9 16 -18 21

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Radomiak Radom Lech Poznan
1–0 Leonardo Rocha
R. Alves
9′
Christos Donis 🟨
28′
Leonardo Rocha 🟨
34′
38′
🟨 Alan Czerwiński
Half-time 1–0
61′
🟨 Filip Dagerstål
Luís Machado 🟨
63′
63′
🔁 Joel Pereira
↦ A. Czerwiński
63′
🔁 N. Kvekveskiri
↦ R. Murawski
Berto Cayarga 🔁
↦ Luís Machado
71′
D. Pik 🔁
↦ Lisandro Semedo
71′
74′
🔁 João Amaral
↦ J. Karlström
74′
🔁 A. Ba Loua
↦ M. Skóraś
J. Sarmiento 🔁
↦ F. Castañeda
81′
84′
A. Sobiech 1–1
J. Nowakowski 🔁
↦ C. Donis
87′
89′
🟨 Barry Douglas
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Radomiak Radom

4-2-3-1
1 G. Kobylak G
14 D. Jakubik D
8 Luizão D
92 M. Cestor D
33 D. Abramowicz D
77 C. Donis M
10 R. Alves M
7 Lisandro Semedo M
70 F. Castañeda M
20 Luís Machado M
17 Leonardo Rocha F
Bench (9)
80 Berto Cayarga
11 D. Pik
19 J. Sarmiento
90 J. Nowakowski
21 J. Snopczyński
12 A. Posiadała
35 D. Łukasik
2 T. Cele
18 K. Okoniewski

Coach: C. Gâlcă

Lech Poznan

4-2-3-1
35 F. Bednarek G
44 A. Czerwiński D
25 F. Dagerstål D
16 A. Milić D
3 B. Douglas D
22 R. Murawski M
6 J. Karlström M
21 M. Skóraś M
7 Afonso Sousa M
23 K. Velde M
90 A. Sobiech F
Bench (6)
2 Joel Pereira
30 N. Kvekveskiri
24 João Amaral
50 A. Ba Loua
37 Ľ. Šatka
77 D. Holec

Coach: J. van den Brom

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
U ✓
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

T Kwiatkowski · 76 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.