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Championship

Referee: J Busby

Luton

T S U S S

1–0

Full-time

Bristol City

S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Bristol City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,7

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

This season — Championship · 34/36 matches

Win Ø 40%

47%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

35%

39%

Both score Ø 49%

41%

56%

Average goals

2,2

2,4

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

0,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%

15 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 5. · Bristol City 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	36	23	11	2	+43	80
2	Sheffield United	36	20	7	9	+24	67
3	Middlesbrough	36	19	7	10	+24	64
4	Millwall	37	17	9	11	+9	60
5	Luton	34	16	10	8	+10	58
6	Blackburn	36	18	4	14	+0	58
7	Norwich	36	16	7	13	+11	55
8	West Brom	36	15	9	12	+8	54
9	Watford	37	14	12	11	+5	54
10	Preston	37	14	11	12	-5	53
11	Sunderland	35	14	9	12	+8	51
12	Coventry	35	13	11	11	+6	50
13	Bristol City	36	12	12	12	+2	48
14	Stoke	37	13	8	16	+3	47
15	Hull	36	12	10	14	-8	46
16	Reading	36	13	5	18	-17	44
17	Swansea	37	11	10	16	-8	43
18	Birmingham	37	11	9	17	-9	42
19	QPR	37	11	9	17	-20	42
20	Rotherham	37	9	13	15	-10	40
21	Cardiff	36	10	8	18	-13	38
22	Blackpool	37	8	11	18	-15	35
23	Wigan	37	7	12	18	-26	33
24	Huddersfield	36	8	8	20	-22	32

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	19	14	5	0	+30	47
2	Blackburn	17	12	1	4	+10	37
3	Sheffield United	18	11	3	4	+18	36
4	Middlesbrough	18	10	6	2	+18	36
5	Millwall	18	10	5	3	+13	35
6	West Brom	19	10	5	4	+11	35
7	Reading	18	10	3	5	+7	33
8	Watford	18	9	5	4	+11	32
9	Bristol City	19	8	5	6	+6	29
10	Coventry	17	8	5	4	+6	29
11	Norwich	19	8	4	7	+5	28
12	Rotherham	18	7	5	6	+7	26
13	Luton	17	6	7	4	+4	25
14	Hull	18	7	4	7	-3	25
15	Swansea	18	7	3	8	+0	24
16	Birmingham	19	6	5	8	+1	23
17	Sunderland	17	6	5	6	+0	23
18	Cardiff	18	6	5	7	-1	23
19	Stoke	18	6	4	8	+2	22
20	Huddersfield	18	6	4	8	-4	22
21	QPR	18	6	4	8	-6	22
22	Blackpool	18	5	6	7	+1	21
23	Preston	19	5	6	8	-8	21
24	Wigan	19	3	6	10	-18	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	17	9	6	2	+13	33
2	Luton	17	10	3	4	+6	33
3	Preston	18	9	5	4	+3	32
4	Sheffield United	18	9	4	5	+6	31
5	Sunderland	18	8	4	6	+8	28
6	Middlesbrough	18	9	1	8	+6	28
7	Norwich	17	8	3	6	+6	27
8	Stoke	19	7	4	8	+1	25
9	Millwall	19	7	4	8	-4	25
10	Watford	19	5	7	7	-6	22
11	Coventry	18	5	6	7	+0	21
12	Hull	18	5	6	7	-5	21
13	Blackburn	19	6	3	10	-10	21
14	QPR	19	5	5	9	-14	20
15	West Brom	17	5	4	8	-3	19
16	Bristol City	17	4	7	6	-4	19
17	Swansea	19	4	7	8	-8	19
18	Birmingham	18	5	4	9	-10	19
19	Wigan	18	4	6	8	-8	18
20	Cardiff	18	4	3	11	-12	15
21	Blackpool	19	3	5	11	-16	14
22	Rotherham	19	2	8	9	-17	14
23	Reading	18	3	2	13	-24	11
24	Huddersfield	18	2	4	12	-18	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.