Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Ascoli
Cittadella
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Cremonese
|
35 | 19 | 9 | 7 | +20 | 66 |
| 2 |
Lecce
|
35 | 17 | 14 | 4 | +26 | 65 |
| 3 |
Monza
|
35 | 18 | 10 | 7 | +23 | 64 |
| 4 |
Benevento
|
35 | 18 | 9 | 8 | +28 | 63 |
| 5 |
Pisa
|
35 | 17 | 12 | 6 | +14 | 63 |
| 6 |
Brescia
|
35 | 16 | 14 | 5 | +18 | 62 |
| 7 |
Ascoli
|
35 | 17 | 7 | 11 | +6 | 58 |
| 8 |
Frosinone
|
35 | 14 | 13 | 8 | +14 | 55 |
| 9 |
Perugia
|
35 | 12 | 16 | 7 | +7 | 52 |
| 10 |
Cittadella
|
35 | 12 | 12 | 11 | +2 | 48 |
| 11 |
Ternana
|
35 | 13 | 9 | 13 | -2 | 48 |
| 12 |
Reggina
|
35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | -12 | 47 |
| 13 |
Parma
|
35 | 10 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 45 |
| 14 |
Como
|
35 | 10 | 14 | 11 | -5 | 44 |
| 15 |
Spal
|
35 | 7 | 14 | 14 | -12 | 35 |
| 16 | Alessandria | 35 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -21 | 32 |
| 17 |
Cosenza
|
35 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -26 | 28 |
| 18 |
Vicenza
|
35 | 6 | 7 | 22 | -25 | 25 |
| 19 |
Crotone
|
35 | 3 | 13 | 19 | -21 | 22 |
| 20 | Pordenone | 35 | 3 | 8 | 24 | -39 | 17 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Parma
Ascoli
Ascoli
Reggina
Monza
Ascoli
Ascoli
Vicenza
Ascoli
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.