Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Vicenza
Perugia
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Lecce
|
34 | 17 | 14 | 3 | +27 | 65 |
| 2 |
Monza
|
34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | +23 | 63 |
| 3 |
Cremonese
|
34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | +18 | 63 |
| 4 |
Brescia
|
34 | 16 | 13 | 5 | +18 | 61 |
| 5 |
Benevento
|
34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | +25 | 60 |
| 6 |
Pisa
|
34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | +12 | 60 |
| 7 |
Ascoli
|
34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | +5 | 55 |
| 8 |
Frosinone
|
34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | +14 | 54 |
| 9 |
Perugia
|
34 | 11 | 16 | 7 | +6 | 49 |
| 10 |
Cittadella
|
34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | +3 | 48 |
| 11 |
Ternana
|
34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | -2 | 47 |
| 12 |
Parma
|
34 | 10 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 45 |
| 13 |
Como
|
34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | -3 | 44 |
| 14 |
Reggina
|
34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | -13 | 44 |
| 15 |
Spal
|
35 | 7 | 14 | 14 | -12 | 35 |
| 16 | Alessandria | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | -22 | 29 |
| 17 |
Cosenza
|
34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -24 | 28 |
| 18 |
Vicenza
|
34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | -24 | 25 |
| 19 |
Crotone
|
35 | 3 | 13 | 19 | -21 | 22 |
| 20 | Pordenone | 34 | 3 | 8 | 23 | -36 | 17 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Benevento
Vicenza
Vicenza
Crotone
Brescia
Vicenza
Vicenza
Ascoli
Vicenza
Parma
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.