Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Toulouse
Amiens
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 3–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Toulouse
|
28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +36 | 57 |
| 2 |
Paris FC
|
28 | 16 | 7 | 5 | +19 | 55 |
| 3 |
Auxerre
|
28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | +14 | 51 |
| 4 |
Ajaccio
|
28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | +10 | 51 |
| 5 |
Sochaux
|
28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | +5 | 47 |
| 6 |
Le Havre
|
28 | 10 | 11 | 7 | +2 | 41 |
| 7 |
Nimes
|
28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | -2 | 39 |
| 8 |
Pau FC
|
28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | -2 | 38 |
| 9 |
Amiens
|
28 | 8 | 12 | 8 | +10 | 36 |
| 10 |
Caen
|
28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | +6 | 35 |
| 11 |
Niort
|
28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | -2 | 35 |
| 12 |
Guingamp
|
28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | -6 | 35 |
| 13 |
Dijon
|
28 | 10 | 4 | 14 | -5 | 34 |
| 14 |
Bastia
|
28 | 7 | 12 | 9 | +1 | 33 |
| 15 |
Valenciennes
|
28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 |
Rodez
|
28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -8 | 31 |
| 17 |
Dunkerque
|
28 | 8 | 6 | 14 | -12 | 30 |
| 18 |
Quevilly Rouen
|
28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -14 | 30 |
| 19 |
Grenoble
|
28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | -15 | 29 |
| 20 |
Nancy
|
28 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -28 | 20 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Caen
Toulouse
Toulouse
Dunkerque
Grenoble
Toulouse
Toulouse
Le Havre
Valenciennes
Toulouse
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.