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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fábio Melo

Tondela

U T U T T

2–3

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

U S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 36%

30%

42%

Points per game

1,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

45%

33%

Both score Ø 45%

48%

42%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

1,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

60% Possession 40%

14 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 12. · Pacos Ferreira 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	33	25	7	1	+41	82
2	Porto	33	23	8	2	+41	77
3	Benfica	33	22	7	4	+40	73
4	Sp Braga	33	19	6	8	+20	63
5	Pacos Ferreira	33	14	8	11	-2	50
6	Santa Clara	33	12	7	14	+4	43
7	Guimaraes	33	12	7	14	-5	43
8	Famalicao	33	10	10	13	-5	40
9	Belenenses	33	9	13	11	-6	40
10	Moreirense	33	9	13	11	-9	40
11	Gil Vicente	33	11	6	16	-8	39
12	Tondela	33	10	6	17	-20	36
13	Maritimo	33	10	5	18	-16	35
14	Portimonense	33	9	7	17	-7	34
15	Boavista	33	7	12	14	-11	33
16	Farense	33	7	10	16	-13	31
17	Rio Ave	33	6	13	14	-16	31
18	Nacional	33	6	7	20	-28	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	12	4	0	+20	40
2	Porto	16	12	3	1	+21	39
3	Benfica	17	12	3	2	+16	39
4	Sp Braga	17	11	3	3	+12	36
5	Pacos Ferreira	17	10	3	4	+4	33
6	Tondela	16	8	2	6	-2	26
7	Santa Clara	16	6	5	5	+6	23
8	Belenenses	17	6	5	6	-3	23
9	Portimonense	16	6	4	6	+3	22
10	Guimaraes	16	7	1	8	-4	22
11	Moreirense	16	3	10	3	-2	19
12	Famalicao	17	4	7	6	-5	19
13	Boavista	17	5	4	8	-5	19
14	Farense	17	4	6	7	-1	18
15	Rio Ave	17	4	6	7	-6	18
16	Maritimo	17	5	3	9	-11	18
17	Gil Vicente	16	4	4	8	-6	16
18	Nacional	16	4	3	9	-10	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	17	13	3	1	+21	42
2	Porto	17	11	5	1	+20	38
3	Benfica	16	10	4	2	+24	34
4	Sp Braga	16	8	3	5	+8	27
5	Gil Vicente	17	7	2	8	-2	23
6	Famalicao	16	6	3	7	+0	21
7	Guimaraes	17	5	6	6	-1	21
8	Moreirense	17	6	3	8	-7	21
9	Santa Clara	17	6	2	9	-2	20
10	Belenenses	16	3	8	5	-3	17
11	Maritimo	16	5	2	9	-5	17
12	Pacos Ferreira	16	4	5	7	-6	17
13	Boavista	16	2	8	6	-6	14
14	Rio Ave	16	2	7	7	-10	13
15	Farense	16	3	4	9	-12	13
16	Portimonense	17	3	3	11	-10	12
17	Tondela	17	2	4	11	-18	10
18	Nacional	17	2	4	11	-18	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.