Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Wehen
St Pauli
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 3–2
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bielefeld
|
33 | 17 | 14 | 2 | +32 | 65 |
| 2 |
Stuttgart
|
33 | 17 | 7 | 9 | +23 | 58 |
| 3 |
Heidenheim
|
33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | +12 | 55 |
| 4 |
Hamburg
|
33 | 14 | 12 | 7 | +20 | 54 |
| 5 |
Darmstadt
|
33 | 12 | 13 | 8 | +3 | 49 |
| 6 |
Bochum
|
33 | 11 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 46 |
| 7 |
Hannover
|
33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | +3 | 45 |
| 8 |
Greuther Furth
|
33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | +2 | 44 |
| 9 |
Erzgebirge Aue
|
33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | -3 | 44 |
| 10 |
Regensburg
|
33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | -5 | 43 |
| 11 |
Holstein Kiel
|
33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | -3 | 42 |
| 12 |
Sandhausen
|
33 | 9 | 13 | 11 | -6 | 40 |
| 13 |
Osnabruck
|
33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | -2 | 39 |
| 14 |
St Pauli
|
33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | -7 | 39 |
| 15 |
Nurnberg
|
33 | 8 | 12 | 13 | -13 | 36 |
| 16 |
Karlsruhe
|
33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | -12 | 34 |
| 17 |
Wehen
|
33 | 8 | 7 | 18 | -22 | 31 |
| 18 |
Dresden
|
33 | 8 | 7 | 18 | -26 | 31 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Darmstadt
Wehen
Wehen
Nurnberg
Holstein Kiel
Wehen
Wehen
Dresden
Hamburg
Wehen
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.