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2. Bundesliga

St Pauli

U T T S U

2–0

Full-time

Hamburg

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Pauli Hamburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/6 matches

Win Ø 52%

20%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 74%

80%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,6

3,2

Scored

1,6

2,5

Conceded

2,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+1,8

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 50%

20%

80%

Points per game

1,0

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

80%

60%

Both score Ø 70%

100%

40%

Average goals

3,6

3,2

Scored

1,6

2,6

Conceded

2,0

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

10 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 5

4 Corners 8

10 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match St Pauli 14. · Hamburg 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stuttgart	6	4	2	0	+4	14
2	Hamburg	5	4	1	0	+10	13
3	Bielefeld	6	3	3	0	+6	12
4	Greuther Furth	6	3	2	1	+2	11
5	Erzgebirge Aue	6	3	2	1	+2	11
6	Sandhausen	6	3	1	2	+2	10
7	Osnabruck	6	3	0	3	+4	9
8	Karlsruhe	6	3	0	3	-2	9
9	Heidenheim	6	2	2	2	+2	8
10	Nurnberg	6	2	2	2	-3	8
11	Regensburg	6	2	1	3	+3	7
12	Dresden	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Darmstadt	6	1	3	2	-3	6
14	St Pauli	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Hannover	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Holstein Kiel	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Bochum	6	0	3	3	-4	3
18	Wehen	6	0	1	5	-11	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stuttgart	3	3	0	0	+3	9
2	Hamburg	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Erzgebirge Aue	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Osnabruck	3	2	0	1	+5	6
5	Karlsruhe	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Sandhausen	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Greuther Furth	3	2	0	1	+0	6
8	Bielefeld	3	1	2	0	+2	5
9	Darmstadt	3	1	2	0	+2	5
10	Holstein Kiel	3	1	2	0	+1	5
11	Heidenheim	3	1	1	1	+1	4
12	Dresden	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Nurnberg	3	1	1	1	-3	4
14	Bochum	3	0	3	0	+0	3
15	Regensburg	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	St Pauli	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Hannover	3	0	2	1	-2	2
18	Wehen	3	0	0	3	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bielefeld	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Hamburg	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Greuther Furth	3	1	2	0	+2	5
4	Stuttgart	3	1	2	0	+1	5
5	Regensburg	3	1	1	1	+4	4
6	Heidenheim	3	1	1	1	+1	4
7	Sandhausen	3	1	1	1	+1	4
8	Nurnberg	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Erzgebirge Aue	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Hannover	3	1	0	2	-1	3
11	Osnabruck	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	Karlsruhe	3	1	0	2	-3	3
13	St Pauli	3	0	2	1	-1	2
14	Dresden	3	0	2	1	-2	2
15	Wehen	3	0	1	2	-2	1
16	Darmstadt	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Bochum	3	0	0	3	-4	0
18	Holstein Kiel	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.