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2. Bundesliga

St Pauli

U T T

2–1

Full-time

Holstein Kiel

U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Pauli Holstein Kiel

Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,3

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

11 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 6

6 Corners 6

14 Free kicks against 7

4 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match St Pauli 17. · Holstein Kiel 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hamburg	4	3	1	0	+7	10
2	Bielefeld	4	2	2	0	+4	8
3	Stuttgart	4	2	2	0	+2	8
4	Sandhausen	4	2	1	1	+2	7
5	Erzgebirge Aue	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Greuther Furth	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Osnabruck	4	2	0	2	+2	6
8	Karlsruhe	4	2	0	2	+0	6
9	Nurnberg	4	2	0	2	-3	6
10	Hannover	4	1	2	1	+2	5
11	Darmstadt	4	1	2	1	-2	5
12	Heidenheim	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Regensburg	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Holstein Kiel	3	1	1	1	-1	4
15	Dresden	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Bochum	4	0	2	2	-3	2
17	St Pauli	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Wehen	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Bielefeld	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Darmstadt	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Holstein Kiel	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Erzgebirge Aue	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Hamburg	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Osnabruck	2	1	0	1	+2	3
8	Karlsruhe	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Regensburg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Sandhausen	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Dresden	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Greuther Furth	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Nurnberg	2	1	0	1	-3	3
14	Bochum	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Hannover	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Heidenheim	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	St Pauli	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Wehen	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hamburg	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Bielefeld	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Greuther Furth	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Sandhausen	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Hannover	2	1	0	1	+2	3
6	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Nurnberg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Erzgebirge Aue	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Karlsruhe	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Osnabruck	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Stuttgart	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Wehen	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	St Pauli	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Regensburg	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Dresden	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Darmstadt	2	0	1	1	-4	1
17	Holstein Kiel	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Bochum	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.