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Championship

Referee: S Duncan

Stoke

U T T S T

2–0

Full-time

Birmingham

U U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,7

3,0

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

2,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,3

This season — Championship · 42/42 matches

Win Ø 30%

31%

29%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

57%

50%

Both score Ø 54%

48%

60%

Average goals

2,9

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

39% Possession 61%

15 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 7

1 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 21. · Birmingham 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	42	24	9	9	+34	81
2	West Brom	43	22	15	6	+33	81
3	Fulham	40	21	9	10	+13	72
4	Brentford	40	20	9	11	+37	69
5	Nott'm Forest	43	18	15	10	+12	69
6	Swansea	40	16	15	9	+11	63
7	Cardiff	41	16	15	10	+6	63
8	Preston	43	17	11	15	+4	62
9	Millwall	43	15	17	11	+3	62
10	Derby	43	16	13	14	-1	61
11	Bristol City	43	17	10	16	-4	61
12	Blackburn	43	16	12	15	+4	60
13	Reading	43	15	11	17	+6	56
14	Sheffield Weds	43	15	10	18	-5	55
15	Wigan	43	14	12	17	-7	54
16	QPR	43	15	8	20	-10	53
17	Birmingham	42	12	13	17	-15	49
18	Middlesbrough	43	11	14	18	-13	47
19	Huddersfield	43	12	11	20	-16	47
20	Charlton	43	12	10	21	-11	46
21	Stoke	42	13	7	22	-12	46
22	Hull	43	12	9	22	-18	45
23	Luton	43	12	8	23	-30	44
24	Barnsley	43	10	13	20	-21	43

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	21	13	5	3	+21	44
2	Derby	22	11	8	3	+14	41
3	Fulham	21	13	2	6	+10	41
4	Brentford	19	11	5	3	+23	38
5	West Brom	21	10	8	3	+17	38
6	Preston	22	11	4	7	+8	37
7	Blackburn	22	9	9	4	+8	36
8	Cardiff	20	9	8	3	+10	35
9	Nott'm Forest	21	10	4	7	+3	34
10	Wigan	21	9	6	6	+2	33
11	Swansea	20	9	5	6	+7	32
12	Millwall	21	8	8	5	+4	32
13	Stoke	21	9	3	9	+7	30
14	Charlton	22	8	5	9	+1	29
15	QPR	22	8	5	9	-1	29
16	Bristol City	21	8	5	8	-3	29
17	Luton	21	7	6	8	-5	27
18	Barnsley	22	6	9	7	-5	27
19	Huddersfield	22	7	6	9	-5	27
20	Sheffield Weds	21	7	6	8	-10	27
21	Middlesbrough	22	6	8	8	-7	26
22	Reading	21	7	4	10	-4	25
23	Birmingham	21	6	6	9	-7	24
24	Hull	22	7	3	12	-7	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	22	12	7	3	+16	43
2	Leeds	21	11	4	6	+13	37
3	Nott'm Forest	22	8	11	3	+9	35
4	Bristol City	22	9	5	8	-1	32
5	Brentford	21	9	4	8	+14	31
6	Reading	22	8	7	7	+10	31
7	Swansea	20	7	10	3	+4	31
8	Fulham	19	8	7	4	+3	31
9	Millwall	22	7	9	6	-1	30
10	Sheffield Weds	22	8	4	10	+5	28
11	Cardiff	21	7	7	7	-4	28
12	Preston	21	6	7	8	-4	25
13	Birmingham	21	6	7	8	-8	25
14	Blackburn	21	7	3	11	-4	24
15	QPR	21	7	3	11	-9	24
16	Middlesbrough	21	5	6	10	-6	21
17	Wigan	22	5	6	11	-9	21
18	Hull	21	5	6	10	-11	21
19	Huddersfield	21	5	5	11	-11	20
20	Derby	21	5	5	11	-15	20
21	Charlton	21	4	5	12	-12	17
22	Luton	22	5	2	15	-25	17
23	Barnsley	21	4	4	13	-16	16
24	Stoke	21	4	4	13	-19	16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.