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Ligue 1

Referee: J Brisard

Metz

U T T U U

1–0

Full-time

Strasbourg

T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Strasbourg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,7

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 29%

16%

42%

Points per game

0,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

37%

42%

Both score Ø 42%

47%

37%

Average goals

2,4

2,5

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

51% Possession 49%

9 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Metz 17. · Strasbourg 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	18	15	0	3	+33	45
2	Marseille	20	12	5	3	+9	41
3	Rennes	19	10	3	6	+6	33
4	Lille	19	9	4	6	+3	31
5	Lyon	20	8	5	7	+12	29
6	Nantes	19	9	2	8	-1	29
7	Reims	18	7	7	4	+6	28
8	Monaco	18	8	4	6	+5	28
9	Angers	19	8	4	7	-2	28
10	Montpellier	19	7	6	6	+7	27
11	Nice	19	8	3	8	+1	27
12	Strasbourg	19	8	3	8	-1	27
13	Bordeaux	20	7	5	8	+5	26
14	St Etienne	19	7	4	8	-7	25
15	Brest	19	5	7	7	-3	22
16	Dijon	19	4	6	9	-8	18
17	Metz	19	3	8	8	-11	17
18	Amiens	18	4	5	9	-15	17
19	Nimes	18	2	6	10	-19	12
20	Toulouse	19	3	3	13	-20	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lille	10	8	2	0	+13	26
2	Paris SG	9	8	0	1	+21	24
3	Marseille	10	7	2	1	+8	23
4	Montpellier	10	7	1	2	+11	22
5	Angers	10	6	2	2	+9	20
6	Nice	10	6	2	2	+8	20
7	Strasbourg	10	6	2	2	+6	20
8	Monaco	9	6	1	2	+10	19
9	Rennes	10	6	1	3	+4	19
10	Nantes	10	6	1	3	+3	19
11	Brest	10	4	5	1	+9	17
12	Reims	10	3	6	1	+4	15
13	Bordeaux	10	4	2	4	+7	14
14	St Etienne	9	3	4	2	+0	13
15	Dijon	9	3	4	2	+0	13
16	Lyon	9	3	2	4	+5	11
17	Amiens	8	3	2	3	-3	11
18	Metz	9	2	4	3	+0	10
19	Toulouse	9	3	0	6	-5	9
20	Nimes	8	2	2	4	-3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	7	0	2	+12	21
2	Lyon	11	5	3	3	+7	18
3	Marseille	10	5	3	2	+1	18
4	Rennes	9	4	2	3	+2	14
5	Reims	8	4	1	3	+2	13
6	Bordeaux	10	3	3	4	-2	12
7	St Etienne	10	4	0	6	-7	12
8	Nantes	9	3	1	5	-4	10
9	Monaco	9	2	3	4	-5	9
10	Angers	9	2	2	5	-11	8
11	Nice	9	2	1	6	-7	7
12	Strasbourg	9	2	1	6	-7	7
13	Metz	10	1	4	5	-11	7
14	Amiens	10	1	3	6	-12	6
15	Montpellier	9	0	5	4	-4	5
16	Dijon	10	1	2	7	-8	5
17	Lille	9	1	2	6	-10	5
18	Brest	9	1	2	6	-12	5
19	Nimes	10	0	4	6	-16	4
20	Toulouse	10	0	3	7	-15	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.