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Championship

Referee: R Jones

Millwall

U S S T U

1–0

Full-time

Brentford

T S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,2

This season — Championship · 24/21 matches

Win Ø 38%

33%

43%

Points per game

1,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

46%

38%

Both score Ø 55%

71%

38%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

34% Possession 66%

8 Shots 6

2 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 10. · Brentford 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	24	14	9	1	+22	51
2	Leeds	24	14	6	4	+21	48
3	Sheffield Weds	24	11	6	7	+13	39
4	Preston	24	11	6	7	+8	39
5	Fulham	22	11	5	6	+11	38
6	Nott'm Forest	23	10	7	6	+7	37
7	Swansea	22	10	7	5	+6	37
8	Blackburn	24	10	6	8	+2	36
9	Bristol City	24	9	8	7	+0	35
10	Millwall	24	8	10	6	-1	34
11	Hull	24	9	6	9	+4	33
12	Cardiff	23	8	9	6	+2	33
13	QPR	24	9	5	10	-8	32
14	Brentford	21	9	4	8	+12	31
15	Reading	23	8	5	10	+2	29
16	Birmingham	24	8	5	11	-10	29
17	Charlton	24	7	7	10	-1	28
18	Derby	24	6	9	9	-10	27
19	Middlesbrough	24	6	9	9	-10	27
20	Huddersfield	24	6	7	11	-10	25
21	Stoke	24	6	3	15	-11	21
22	Luton	24	6	3	15	-19	21
23	Barnsley	24	4	8	12	-15	20
24	Wigan	24	4	8	12	-15	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	12	9	2	1	+16	29
2	Leeds	12	7	4	1	+11	25
3	Cardiff	11	7	3	1	+9	24
4	West Brom	11	6	5	0	+13	23
5	Fulham	12	7	2	3	+9	23
6	Blackburn	13	6	5	2	+5	23
7	Sheffield Weds	11	6	4	1	+6	22
8	Middlesbrough	13	6	4	3	+1	22
9	Hull	13	6	2	5	+5	20
10	Derby	12	5	5	2	+5	20
11	Millwall	11	5	4	2	+4	19
12	Brentford	10	5	3	2	+11	18
13	Charlton	13	5	3	5	+2	18
14	Reading	12	6	0	6	+2	18
15	Swansea	11	5	2	4	+4	17
16	Birmingham	11	5	2	4	+1	17
17	Bristol City	11	4	4	3	+2	16
18	QPR	12	4	4	4	-3	16
19	Wigan	12	4	4	4	-3	16
20	Luton	12	4	3	5	-1	15
21	Barnsley	13	3	6	4	-3	15
22	Nott'm Forest	10	4	2	4	-1	14
23	Stoke	13	4	2	7	-3	14
24	Huddersfield	12	3	4	5	-3	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	13	8	4	1	+9	28
2	Leeds	12	7	2	3	+10	23
3	Nott'm Forest	13	6	5	2	+8	23
4	Swansea	11	5	5	1	+2	20
5	Bristol City	13	5	4	4	-2	19
6	Sheffield Weds	13	5	2	6	+7	17
7	QPR	12	5	1	6	-5	16
8	Fulham	10	4	3	3	+2	15
9	Millwall	13	3	6	4	-5	15
10	Brentford	11	4	1	6	+1	13
11	Hull	11	3	4	4	-1	13
12	Blackburn	11	4	1	6	-3	13
13	Huddersfield	12	3	3	6	-7	12
14	Birmingham	13	3	3	7	-11	12
15	Reading	11	2	5	4	+0	11
16	Charlton	11	2	4	5	-3	10
17	Preston	12	2	4	6	-8	10
18	Cardiff	12	1	6	5	-7	9
19	Stoke	11	2	1	8	-8	7
20	Derby	12	1	4	7	-15	7
21	Luton	12	2	0	10	-18	6
22	Middlesbrough	11	0	5	6	-11	5
23	Barnsley	11	1	2	8	-12	5
24	Wigan	12	0	4	8	-12	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.