Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Cittadella
Virtus Entella
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Benevento
|
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | +21 | 43 |
| 2 | Pordenone | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | +3 | 31 |
| 3 |
Cittadella
|
18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | +1 | 29 |
| 4 |
Crotone
|
18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | +6 | 28 |
| 5 |
Ascoli
|
18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | +5 | 27 |
| 6 |
Perugia
|
18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | +0 | 27 |
| 7 |
Frosinone
|
18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | +5 | 26 |
| 8 |
Pescara
|
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | +3 | 26 |
| 9 |
Salernitana
|
18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | +3 | 26 |
| 10 |
Chievo
|
19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | +2 | 26 |
| 11 |
Virtus Entella
|
18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | +1 | 26 |
| 12 |
Pisa
|
18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | +0 | 23 |
| 13 |
Empoli
|
18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | -5 | 22 |
| 14 |
Spezia
|
17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | +1 | 21 |
| 15 |
Cremonese
|
17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | -6 | 21 |
| 16 |
Juve Stabia
|
18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | -8 | 21 |
| 17 |
Cosenza
|
18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | +1 | 20 |
| 18 |
Venezia
|
18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | -5 | 19 |
| 19 | Trapani | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -14 | 15 |
| 20 | Livorno | 18 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -14 | 11 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Venezia
Cittadella
Cittadella
Chievo
Ascoli
Cittadella
Cittadella
Salernitana
Crotone
Cittadella
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.